Thursday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace (Jan. 14)
Michael Regan/Getty Images. Pictured: Arsenal standout Alexandre Lacazette.
Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace Odds
|Arsenal Odds||-186 [BET NOW]|
|Crystal Palace Odds||+550[BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-118/-106) [BET NOW]|
|Day | Time||Thursday | 3 p.m. ET|
Odds updated as of Wednesday at 12:30 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Things could get pretty interesting Thursday when Arsenal welcomes Crystal Palace to Emirates Stadium for an important Premier League showdown.
The Gunners enter this match following four wins on the bounce across all competitions, with their most recent triumph coming via a 4-0 shutout of West Bromwich Albion. After a very rough patch of fixtures, Arsenal has creeped its way up the table into 11th place on 23 points.
On the other side, the visiting Eagles brought to a close their five-game winless skid in their 2-0 victory over lowly Sheffield United last time out at Selhurst Park. Crystal Palace sits right on its host’s heels, currently parked in 13th place on 22 points.
Needless to say, both would love to continue their respective winning ways in league play. Let’s take a look at what could be in the cards for these clubs.
Boy, have things changed for manager Mikel Arteta and his Gunners.
A four-match winless stretch, which included a 4-1 blowout defeat against Manchester City at the Emirates, placed Arteta firmly on many pundits’ hot seat and left fans wondering how this downward spiral could be happening.
Then came what likely turned out to be Arsenal’s season-changing, Boxing Day tilt against Chelsea. Alexandre Lacazette and Granit Xhaka staked the Gunners to 2-0 lead after 45 minutes, then Bukayo Saka closed out the solid effort in the second half to give the them a resounding, 3-1 win over the Blues.
Shutout victories over drop-zone contenders Brighton & Hove Albion (1-0) and West Brom (4-0) ensued, sending Arsenal up the standings and removing the target from Arteta’s back. The Gunners continued their stellar play Saturday, notching their third consecutive shutout in a 2-0 win over Newcastle in the third round of FA Cup.
If you dig into Arsenal’s overall numbers, they tell the tale of a club sitting in the middle of the pack that’s on the rise up the table.
The Gunners have generated average numbers of 22.2 expected goals and 20.6 expected goals against, generating a relatively flat +1.6 xGDiff and +0.09 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Manager Roy Hodgson had to be pleased to finally get out of that brutal stretch of matches, even if it was a win against last-place Sheffield United. The Eagles made two first-half goals stand up en route to all three points.
Yet, despite the positive result, Crystal Palace failed to generate consistent play in the Blades’ defensive third of the pitch. That was obvious watching the match, as well as on paper when the advanced stats revealed just a 0.6-0.3 xG advantage.
That lack of offensive success carried over into its most recent, non-league contest, where it suffered a 1-0 shutout defeat against Wolves in the third round of the FA Cup on Friday at Molineux Stadium.
When comparing advanced metrics with Arsenal, Crystal Palace is well behind its opponent in all four major statistical categories.
The Eagles sit on a 16.2 expected goals and dismal 23.9 expected goals against, generating in a disappointing -7.7 xGDiff and -0.45 for xGDiff/90 minutes. Crystal Palace, which ranks 16th overall in xGDiff and xGDiff/90, must improve if it’s going to have any shot at finishing near the top half of the table.
Betting Analysis & Picks
As I like to say on a consistent basis, do not overthink what’s obvious.
Arsenal is in better form and looks like a club ready to make a serious run toward a possible Europa League berth during the second half of its season.
The Gunners are doing it at both ends of the park and catch an opponent that has been anything but great as of late. Arsenal has also been the better team in terms of possession over the last three league games as well, which I think is a major angle to factor in entering this affair. Take a look:
- Arsenal — 50% | 61% | 61%
- Crystal Palace — 34% | 45% | 47%
That said, I am backing Arsenal on the moneyline to bag all three points. The Gunners are in the best form of their campaign and should have their way against a Crystal Palace side that has mustered just one win in six of its last seven overall matches.
I will also play Arsenal to score at least two goals at -155, as well. The Gunners have scored at least twice in seven of their last eight home confrontations with the Eagles, which has me confident in this angle.
Picks: Arsenal ML (-190) | Arsenal — Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-155)
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