Tottenham vs Man United Odds, Pick, Prediction | Premier League Analysis

Tottenham vs Man United Odds, Pick, Prediction | Premier League Analysis article feature image

James Gill/Getty. Pictured: Marcus Rashford.

Tottenham vs Man United Odds

Thurs, Apr. 27
3:15 p.m. ET

Tottenham Odds


Man United Odds

Over/Under2.5 (-150 / +124)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(-190 / +146)
Odds via DraftKings. Get the latest soccer odds here.

Tottenham played so poorly on Sunday at Newcastle that Spurs fired interim manager Christian Stellini following the match. The squad of Spurs players decided to refund the tickets for all fans who traveled up to St. James' Park to witness the 6-1 shellacking. Spurs return home to North London on Thursday to face off against Manchester United, who advanced on penalties in a dramatic FA Cup semifinal on Sunday against Brighton.

It's hard to imagine a team can be at a lower rock bottom point than Spurs on Sunday, who trailed 5-0 inside 25 minutes. The market reacted accordingly to the poor all-around display from Tottenham. This game was lined as a true toss-up prior to Sunday's matches, but Manchester United are now a slight road favorite on Thursday night.

Tottenham Bad on Both Ends of The Pitch

Spurs attempted to switch to a back four defensive shape on Sunday, but they kept two attacking full backs with both Pedro Porro and Ivan Perisic as the two wide defenders. Neither of them is a defense first player and both prefer to get forward, and the miscommunications between them and the center backs led to multiple goals for Newcastle on Sunday. Combine that with a bad shot stopping half from Hugo Lloris and some excellent Newcastle finishing, and the result is the 5-0 first half.

Ryan Mason is now the new interim manager at Spurs, but I wouldn't expect him to change from the back three system given how frequently Spurs have been playing it for the past 15 months under Antonio Conte. Sunday's game would have you think that the defense has been Tottenham's biggest problem this year, but the attack is still producing just 1.17 xG per 90 since the World Cup break. That's a below average Premier League attack and the decline in performance from Heung-min Son and injuries to the attacking midfielders and other forwards have led to the mediocre outputs.

The days of Spurs being an excellent defensive team inside its own penalty area and excelling in transition attacks is pretty much over when you look at their transition numbers. Spurs are a below average team in xG created from transition, and a major reason for that is the decline in shot quality for Son and Kane, on average.

An attack that finished last season top three in big scoring chances created is now average.

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Man United Looking For Repeat Performance 

Manchester United totally overwhelmed Spurs in the reverse fixture by pushing up their central midfielders and putting a ton of pressure on Spurs' backline as they attempted to build out from the back. Erin ten Hag's press overwhelmed Spurs and Tottenham were unable to string together multiple passes without losing possession of the ball.

Now that the injuries are piling up for Manchester United, there is a question of whether the defense will continue to perform at the same level. Sevilla and Brighton were able to force United to play long from goal kicks due to the decreased ball playing ability of the center backs without Lisandro Martinez. In this matchup, though, Tottenham don't really press high up the pitch or aim to create high turnovers. The tactics could change under Mason, but the pressing limitations with a front three of Kane, Son and Dejan Kulusevski likely means that Spurs will be passive in their attempts to press from the front.

Manchester United's attack has remained overvalued for large parts of the second half of the season when you consider that Marcus Rashford has run incredibly hot finishing. His production has been elite, but the absence of Bruno Fernandes — he's questionable Thursday — takes away a lot of the ball progression and chance creation from this side.

That role could be filled by Christian Eriksen or Jadon Sancho, but Eriksen plays in a deeper role and Sancho is out of form.

Tottenham vs Man United Pick

Tottenham can't possibly play worse than it did defensively on Sunday at Newcastle, and a return home and to a more familiar formation should help them. Newcastle are also a much more effective and cohesive high pressing team than Manchester United are at this point too, so I wouldn't expect Spurs to be nearly as overwhelmed in their own half as they were on Sunday.

From a projections standpoint, I only project 2.82 goals for this match, and I have been consistently lower than the market on the quality of both units. For Spurs, it's a decline from Kane and Son. For Manchester United, the attack has been too reliant on Rashford's production, which is likely to regress in the future.

I'd bet under 3 at -120 or better.

Pick: Under 3 (-120)

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