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Spurs vs. Marseille Betting Preview: Updated Champions League Odds, Picks, Prediction

Spurs vs. Marseille Betting Preview: Updated Champions League Odds, Picks, Prediction article feature image
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Clive Rose/Getty Images. Pictured: Tottenham stars Harry Kane and Son Heung-min.

  • Harry Kane and Tottenham host Ligue 1 side Marseille in Wednesday's Champions League match.
  • Spurs are the solid home favorites, but handicapper Nick Hennion has landed on a prop wager as his top pick.
  • Check out below to see which bet he likes ahead of this clash.

Spurs vs. Marseille Odds

Spurs Odds -210
Marseille Odds +550
Draw +340
Over/Under 2.5 (-140 / +116)
Day | Time Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET
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Odds updated as of Wednesday afternoon via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

For the first time since February 2020, Tottenham Hotspur will play a UEFA Champions League home match.

The Group D favorites host Ligue 1 representatives Marseille, which last featured in this competition in 2020-21 and fell out of the group stage, for Wednesday’s opening clash in Europe’s top competition.

These sides have never met in their respective histories and are a combined 0-4-0 (W-L-D) in their most recent ties with the respective nations.

Tottenham

In the early going this season, Tottenham has looked remarkably average on both ends of the pitch.

Manager Antonio Conte’s side has been better on defense, limiting its first six Premier League opponents to only four big scoring chances. Offensively, Tottenham has generated just north of 1.8 big scoring chances per match a season after creating 2.21 big chances per outing, per fotmob.com.

If there’s one aspect of Tottenham’s season in which it has excelled, it has been its home defense. Through three home EPL fixtures, Conte’s defense has conceded exactly zero big scoring chances.

By The Numbers

  • T-2nd — Ranking for Tottenham in big scoring chances against this EPL season.
  • +5—  Big scoring chances differential for Spurs at home in the English top flight.
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Marseille

Almost on cue, Marseille has picked up right where it left off by outperforming its underlying metrics.

Last season, Marseille proved particularly fortunate away from home. In 19 league matches, it posted a +14 road goal differential on a +6 xG differential, per fbref.com. Just this calendar year, Marseille has scored 20 road Ligue 1 goals on 16.2 xG in the process.

That said, Marseille’s attack was quite good in last season’s Europa League. Albeit against opposition lower than Tottenham’s level, Les Olympiens generated 1.68 xG per 90 minutes and were held at less than one xG only once.

By The Numbers

  • +10/+6 — Marseille goal differential/big scoring chances differential this season.
  • 3 — Big scoring chances per 90 minutes for Les Olympiens in Ligue 1 this campaign.
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Betting Analysis & Pick

For me, there aren’t many side or total prices that inform getting involved here. That said, I do see value on the props market.

So far this season, Tottenham has established itself as a markedly better second-half side. In the first half of all its six of its games, Spurs have generated only 2.7 xG in the process.

On the flip side, they have amassed 7.55 xG in the second half of all Premier League fixtures, per fotmob.com.

As for Marseille, it has played equally well offensively in both halves. In fact, manager Igor Tudor’s side has created exactly 4.72 xG in both the first half and second half of its Ligue 1 fixtures.

That said, I’m expecting Marseille to come out and sit back defensively in the first half as the heavy underdog. Add in that Tottenham prefers to play without the ball — Conte’s side sits ninth in the EPL in average possession — and I expect a low-event first half of this match.

As a result, I’m backing the second half to be the higher scoring half as my top play.

The Pick: Highest Scoring Half — Second Half (+104) 

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