Manchester City vs. Borussia Dortmund Odds, Picks & Predictions For Tuesday’s Champions League Quarterfinal

Manchester City vs. Borussia Dortmund Odds, Picks & Predictions For Tuesday’s Champions League Quarterfinal article feature image
Credit:

Christian Verheyen/Borussia Moenchengladbach via Getty Images. Pictured: Kevin De Bruyne.

  • The uncrowned champion of England continues its Champions League journey on Tuesday when it faces Borussia Dortmund in the quarterfinal round.
  • The Cityzens, who are favored to win the European tournament, face a struggling German opponent that is fifth in the Bundesliga.
  • Kieran Darcy lays out where he sees betting value on Manchester City in the first leg of this tie below.

Manchester City vs. Dortmund Odds

Manchester City Odds -295
Dortmund Odds +750
Draw +440
Over/Under 3.5 (+140 / -175) 
Day | Time Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET
TV Paramount+
Odds updated Monday afternoon and via DraftKings.

The Champions League quarterfinal round kicks off Tuesday, with Manchester City now the clear favorite to win the tournament. The Cityzens sit at +200 odds via the latest DraftKings numbers, which puts the Premier League power significantly ahead of reigning champion Bayern Munich at +375 odds.

However, Manchester City has to deal with German stalwart Borussia Dortmund in its two-leg matchup in the final eight of the competition.

Here’s a closer look at these clubs, including a pick for this first-leg match.

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Manchester City

With seven Premier League games left this season, Manchester City has a 14-point lead on second-place Manchester United. The Cityzens are closing in on wrapping up the title in England’s top flight, plus they have the Carabao Cup final and an FA Cup semifinal on their schedule.

That said, the distinct possibility of pulling off an unprecedented quadruple is still very much on the table for manager Pep Guardiola’s side.

Domestically, Manchester City has been utterly dominant, losing only three of its first 31 league matches, and just once since December. The Cityzens have scored 66 goals, which is eight more than any other team in the league, and conceded 21 goals (nine fewer than the next best) among 20 clubs.

The underlying numbers tell a similar story. Manchester City has an expected-goal differential (xGDiff) of +36.4, according to FBref.com, which is well above its closest competitor (Chelsea at +22.1 xGDiff) in that advanced metric.

Manchester City is coming off Saturday’s typically lopsided 2-0 win over Leicester City. The Foxes are in third place, yet the Cityzens dismissed them with relative ease. Manchester City outshot Leicester City by a 12-5 margin, plus it held a  2.3-0.4 xG edge.

Prior to this UCL matchup, Manchester City had little trouble with Borussia Mönchengladbach in the Round of 16, cruising to 2-0 victories in each leg. The combined xG from that tie was 2.6-0.8 in the Cityzens’ favor.

Dortmund

Dortmund find itself in fifth place with 43 points in the Bundesliga, putting it a distant 21 points behind league-leading Bayern Munich and seven behind fourth-place Eintracht Frankfurt with seven games left on the slate.

Needless to say, that’s very disappointing for a team with as much talent as Dortmund possesses. The Black and Yellows have just a 16% chance of finishing in the top four in the league, which they need to do to earn automatic qualification for Champions League next season, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Dortmund has scored 55 goals in 27 league matches (only Bayern Munich has scored more (79), but they’ve conceded 39 goals thus far.

The Black and Yellows’ position in the table is especially frustrating when you look at their underlying numbers. Dortmund is third in the league in xGDiff (+22.2), which isn’t far behind second-place RB Leipzig (+26.8 xGDiff) and Bayern (+24.8 xGDiff) in the category.

Dortmund is coming off a 2-1 home loss to Eintracht Frankfurt last Saturday, which further damaged its hopes of a top-four finish. The Black and Yellows outshot Frankfurt, 17-14, and held a  1.7-1.4 xG advantage, but suffered a defeat nonetheless thanks to Andre Silva’s 87th-minute goal.

Dortmund advanced to the UCL quarterfinals by eliminated Spanish side Sevilla, which is fourth in La Liga, via a 5-4 aggregate total. That tie was close in terms of the xG battle, with Dortmund finishing with a 3.0-2.6 xG edge.


Betting Analysis & Pick

Jadon Sancho is expected to miss the first leg, which is a big blow for Dortmund. Sancho has eight goals and 12 assists in 27 combined Bundesliga and Champions League appearances this season, and surely would have loved to make a big impact against his former club.

Manchester City is clearly in better form and could do a lot of damage against a Dortmund team that’s giving up nearly 1.5 goals per match in the Germany’s first division, and conceded four goals in two matches against a relatively punchless Sevilla.

For those reasons, I’ll take Manchester City to win the first leg and do so in comfortable fashion.

Pick: Manchester City -1.5 (-105)

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