Champions League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for PSG vs. RB Leipzig (Tuesday, Nov. 24)
Valery Hache/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Paris Saint-Germain star Kylian Mbappé.
- Paris Saint-Germain hosts RB Leipzig in one of Tuesday's biggest Champions League matches. The two clubs squared off November 4, with the German side earning a 2-1 win.
- Jeremy Pond breaks down the meeting and tells us why he likes the host to triumph at Parc des Princes.
PSG vs. RB Leipzig Odds
|PSG Odds||-167 [BET NOW]|
|RB Leipzig Odds||+400 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+350 [BET NOW]|
|Time||3 p.m. ET|
|TV||CBS All Access | fuboTV|
Powerhouse clubs are set to do battle Tuesday when Paris Saint-Germain hosts RB Leipzig in a crucial Champions League match.
Both European juggernauts are chasing one of the top two spots in Group H that would get them to the knockout stage of the competition.
This is a huge match for PSG, which finds itself sitting behind Leipzig and Manchester United on the table. The Parisians are 1-2 in group play, which includes a 2-1 loss against RB Leipzig the last time these sides played back on Nov. 4 in Germany.
Ángel Di María gave PSG the lead six minutes into that match, but it was all downhill from there, with the visitors playing down two men at the final whistle after they were sent off.
Suffice to say, a win would give either side a huge edge moving forward in their respective pursuits of a tournament championship.
That said, let’s see how things shape up heading into this matchup.
Things have not been that hunky-dory in Paris as of late, which really needs to get together starting Tuesday at Parc des Princes.
The Parisians, who made it all the way to the Champions League final last season, have not been their usual selves thus far, but avenging that earlier loss to RB Leipzig would be a major step in the right direction.
PSG didn’t look so hot in its first match following the international break, dropping a 3-2 decision to fellow French stalwart Monaco. Kylian Mbappé finished with two goals, but it wasn’t enough in the hotly contested affair.
Looking at the statistical data, PSG has been quite average in the quartet. The Parisians currently sit on 4.6 expected goals and 4.3 expected goals against, resulting in a +0.3 xGDiff and +0.10 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
The German side put together a dream run in this competition last year before being bounced by — you guessed it — PSG in the semifinal round.
RB Leipzig exacted a touch of revenge in that win over PSG a few weeks back but needs another strong showing to further its chances of marching on this time around in this tough group.
The club has been in relatively good form as of late, going unbeaten in its last three games across all competitions. Most recently, RB Leipzig picked up a 1-1 draw against Eintracht Frankfurt following the hiatus.
When comparing RB Leipzig’s data against PSG, the visiting side’s advanced metrics are not as strong despite it being better in the group standings. RB Leipzig has just 3.6 expected goals and 4.1 expected goals against, yielding a -0.5 xGDiff and -0.19 xGDiff/90 minutes.
The bottom line is these stats likely won’t get it done in the long run when competing with the likes of PSG and Manchester United for the top spots.
Betting Analysis & Picks
This showdown really has the makings of being the day’s best match.
There is so much on the line for these clubs, with their tournament futures pretty much on the line.
That said, I am giving the edge to the host.
This is a match the Parisians must have if they’re going to get a stronghold on one of the group’s top two spots. Honestly, I think anything but a win and all three points works against PSG and its UCL title hopes.
Back PSG to win this game outright. I’m also going to play the total to stay under the number. RB Leipzig has just one goal in its last three road matches, including a 5-0 loss to Manchester United in UCL play, so I will take the total at this borderline minus-150 number and play it with confidence.
Picks: PSG ML (-167) | Total Under 3.5 Goals (-150)