The United States and Belgium will take center stage tonight at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington at 8:00 p.m. ET on FOX.
In what oddsmakers project to be a competitive Round of 16 clash, the USMNT is priced as a slim +145 favorite to win outright on home soil, while Belgium sits close behind at +185 to secure a victory in regulation. The over/under for the matchup is currently set at 2.5 goals (-155o / +125u).
Below, you can find our USA vs. Belgium World Cup picks, which feature detailed predictions for an array of betting markets including total shots, second-half goals, halftime/fulltime results, and more.
United States vs Belgium Picks & Props
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:00 p.m. | |
| 8:00 p.m. | |
| 8:00 p.m. | |
| 8:00 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our World Cup Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
United States vs Belgium Odds
| Belgium Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -180 | 2.5 -155o / +125u | +185 |
| United States Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +140 | 2.5 -155o / +125u | +145 |
United States vs Belgium Match Winner Prediction
By William Boor
Bookmakers see these teams as pretty evenly matched here. However, the United States have put together a far more impressive campaign than Belgium over the course of this World Cup, a factor that is heavily amplified by their distinct home-field advantage.
Consequently, we are backing the USA to secure their spot in the next round.
Belgium was fortunate to survive Senegal in the previous round, as they looked destined for an early exit after generating next to nothing in the attacking third. Ultimately, it took some lackluster defending from Senegal to allow Belgium to net two late goals and force extra time.
The lack of creativity remains a glaring concern for the European side, highlighted by the fact that they managed a meager 0.87 expected goals (xG) while surrendering a whopping 2.86 expected goals against (xGA) during normal time.
In stark contrast, Belgium now faces a confident American team that has tasted victory in three of their four tournament matches. Team USA suffered their only blemish against Türkiye in their final group stage fixture, a game that mattered little given the USMNT had already locked up first place in the group.
Crucially, the USA has consistently won the analytical battle, registering a higher xG than their opponents in all three of their victories at this tournament.
While Belgium did comprehensive damage to the USMNT in a 5-2 friendly win back in March, they haven't been able to replicate that elite form since landing at the World Cup.
With their sole regulation victory in this tournament coming against New Zealand, the Americans look primed to capitalize on Belgium's stuttering form and advance.
Pick: USA to Qualify (-110)
United States vs Belgium Both Teams to Score Prop Bet
The United States should show plenty of attacking intent in this matchup. Team USA has been brave throughout this tournament, a fearless approach that is expected to continue against a dangerous Belgium side that has consistently carried a threat of its own.
Given the offensive capabilities on display from both sides, backing both teams to find the back of the net looks like a great option.
The Americans have successfully scored in all four of their matches at this World Cup, netting an impressive average of 2.5 goals per game. They men have proven to be remarkably clinical in front of goal, converting 10 goals from an expected goals (xG) figure of just 5.58, suggesting they are more than capable of capturing at least one of their chances tonight.
This sustained attacking efficiency is nothing new for Team USA, as they have failed to find the scoresheet in just two of their last 20 international matches.
Over that 20-game stretch, they have averaged 2.05 goals scored while conceding 1.35 goals per game. However, the 1x2 market indicates that Belgium will present the toughest challenge of the World Cup so far for the co-hosts, with the USA priced at over 2.50 to win.
Since the beginning of 2025, the USA has found themselves priced over 2.50 on the 1x2 market on 10 separate occasions. They managed to keep only one clean sheet across those 10 fixtures, which featured a high-scoring average of 3.7 total goals per game and saw both teams score in seven of those contests.
A similar trend of mutual goalscoring has followed Belgium, with both teams finding the net in three of their four matches at this World Cup.
Furthermore, the most recent encounter between these two nations took place back in March, a high-octane affair where Belgium ultimately ran out 5-2 victors.
While the United States should put forward a much sturdier and improved performance this time around on home soil, both teams possess the necessary firepower to score once again as they fight for a coveted place in the last eight of the World Cup.
Pick: Both Teams to Score (-165)
United States vs Belgium Combined Throw Ins Pick
The throw-in count has been notably high in the United States' World Cup matches so far, and that trend looks set to continue tonight.
With Belgium carrying a significant threat in wide areas, the ball should frequently find its way past the touchline against a USMNT side that loves to press.
Consequently, backing over 37.5 throw-ins in this game stands out as a strong option. Mauricio Pochettino demands that his teams press high up the pitch, a tactical hallmark that has been on full display throughout this tournament.
The Americans have allowed just 9.7 passes per defensive action, ranking among the absolute fewest in the tournament, and defending so aggressively from the front has naturally generated a high volume of throws.
This intense style of play is reflected in the data, as the USA’s group stage matches saw an average of 46.33 throw-ins per game. This figure represented the fourth-most of any team in the group stage and sat considerably higher than the tournament average of 36.75.
While there were slightly fewer throw-ins in the USA’s recent knockout match against Bosnia and Herzegovina, the contest still produced 40 throws, allowing this specific betting line to clear with relative ease.
On the other side of the pitch, Belgium’s matches at this World Cup have featured far fewer throw-ins, averaging just 34.75 per game in regulation. However, the relentless intensity brought by the United States, coupled with the elite dribbling ability of the Belgian wingers should inevitably drive up the numbers.
As both teams fight for control of the flanks under heavy pressure, this matchup is primed to see an increased throw count.
Pick: Over 37.5 Throw Ins (-120)
United States vs Belgium Anytime Goalscorer Prop Bet
All the pregame attention is on Folarin Balogun and FIFA’s controversial decision to reinstate him after his Round of 32 red card. That could be just how Christian Pulisic likes it.
He needs to make a statement in this tournament — the face of the US men’s national team. But has yet to score at this World Cup after an injury forced him off at halftime of their first match. He then missed one game entirely, and was able to make a 30-minute cameo against Türkiye.
Pulisic was back in the lineup in the Round of 32, but wasn’t at his best against Bosnia. If the USMNT are to advance, that can’t happen again tonight against Belgium.
While everyone focuses on Balogun, Pulisic will be motivated to make an impact. He scored 8 goals with 4 assists for AC Milan this season. He laid an assist against Paraguay before his injury.
Belgium have conceded in every match at this tournament but one — their 0-0 draw with Iran in the group stage. At +220, back Captain America to step out of the shadow and deliver when the team absolutely needs it most.
Pick: Christian Pulisic Anytime Goalscorer (+220)
