USA vs Canada Odds, Pick, Prediction | Gold Cup Preview
Andy Mead/Getty. Pictured: USA soccer.
USA vs Canada Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-106 / -118)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 7:30 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||FOX|
|Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
The United States Men's National Team continue their bid for a third consecutive CONCACAF Gold Cup crown when they meet Canada on Sunday in a quarterfinal.
This will be the second meeting of the border rivals this summer, after the USMNT defeated the CanMNT in the CONCACAF Nations League final last month.
But only a few of the same faces will be involved after both teams gave many of their best European-based players the rest of the summer off following that final.
Canada took four points out of six from these teams’ two meetings in World Cup Qualifying. But the USA own a 4-0-1 record (W-L-T) in five all-time meetings in the Gold Cup.
Hard to Evaluate USA Based on Group Stage
It’s hard to know exactly what to make of the United States’ performances in Group A, which pitted the Yanks against one of the strongest Gold Cup group opponents they’ve ever played followed by two of the weakest.
Interim manager B.J. Callahan’s largely MLS-based squad opened with a 1-1 draw against a Jamaica side that boasts six Premier League players and several other MLS regulars.
They followed that with 6-0 routes over a St. Kitts and Nevis side in their first Gold Cup and a Trinidad and Tobago squad that is at a low point in their own national team history.
Jesus Ferreira had hat tricks against the latter two opponents, becoming the first player in USMNT to score three or more in consecutive matches.
It remains to be seen if that form can carry over to stronger opposition. He scored only once in six appearances in the final round of CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying, and all 12 of his 14 career USMNT goals have come against Caribbean opposition that did not reach that final round of CONCACAF Qualifying.
Brandon Vazquez and Djordje Mihailovic also scored twice each in the group stage. Mihailovic and Gianluca Busio each have two assists.
Canada Doesn't Have the Same Depth as Elite Foes
After finishing first in the CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying table and reaching the Nations League final, Canada manager John Herdman decided to take a similar approach in giving several of his stars a break before their European preseasons kick off.
In rough order of importance, Alphonso Davies, Jonathan David, Cyle Larin, Tajon Buchanan, Samuel Adekugbe and Atiba Hutchinson are all out of the fold for the tournament.
But the truth that is perhaps emerging is that, while Canada’s best can defeat anyone in the region, their player pool just isn’t as deep as the USA or Mexico, at least yet.
The Canucks opened the tournament with a brutal 2-2 draw in Toronto against Caribbean darlings Guadeloupe, who pulled even on an 89th-minute own goal.
Then they settled for a 0-0 draw against Guatemala, who went on to win the group by beating Guadeloupe on the final day. Canada’s 4-2 group finale win over a Cuba side depleted by defections was only enough to secure second.
No Canadian player has scored multiple goals so far this tournament, though every front-three player who has started a match has one. Lucas Cavallini and Junior Hoilett are probably the most consistently goal-dangerous players on this version of Herdman’s squad.
USA vs Canada Pick
Do not get sucked into the trap of believing high-scoring group matches will lead to a likelihood of a similar fate in the knockout stages.
In the USMNT's 27 knockout phase games since the tournament went to four-team groups for good in 2005, the total under 2.5 has cashed on 14 occasions, just over half the time. The total under 3.5 has cashed 20 out of 27 times. There were plenty of lopsided, high-scoring group wins in those tournaments.
And in the games that went over 3.5, two were multi-goal losses to a Mexico team that was the best in the region at the time. Three were multi-goal wins over teams that finished third in their group. Neither of those descriptions applies to Canada.
Secondly, while the comparison is an inexact science, the evidence so far suggests the gap has widened between the U.S. and Canada as a result of each team’s dismissals following the Gold Cup.
That might be counter to expectations, but it’s hard to overstate just how important Davies and David are to Canada and their philosophy of playing a lower block and countering at speed. Buchanan and Larin are also players who excel at this.
So, I think the value is actually on the U.S. as well as a low-ish total. And my favorite bet is parlaying the two, playing the Americans to win a game with 3.5 goals or fewer at +125 odds and an implied 44.4% probability. That’s cashed in four of the five previous Gold Cup meetings between these sides, and USMNT’s last three Gold Cup quarterfinals.
If you’re higher on this version of Canada — or lower on this version of the U.S. — you could play a similar parlay on U.S. or draw double chance and under 2.5 at +115 odds instead. Predicting a Canada win just isn't credible right now given this particular squad's Gold Cup games. A 90-minute draw is a lot more likely if this is one stays cagey.
Pick: Same-game parlay, USA ML and Under 3.5 (+125 via BetMGM)