USA vs Canada Odds, Pick, Prediction | Nations League Match Preview

USA vs Canada Odds

Sunday, June 18

8:30 p.m. ET

Paramount+

The United States and Canadian national teams will meet in a continental final for the first time as the CONCACAF Nations League title is on the line in Las Vegas.

This is the USMNT's fifth consecutive appearance in a CONCACAF final since 2017. The Americans reached this stage with a 3-0 victory over Mexico.

Canada is in its first final since winning the 2000 Concacaf Gold Cup.

Canada got the better of the U.S. during the final round of Concacaf World Cup qualifying, winning 2-0 at home and drawing 1-1 away en route to its historic finish atop the regional standings. The Americans' last victory in the series came a few months before qualifying began, a 1-0 triumph in a Gold Cup group game.

USA Retains Talent Edge Despite Suspensions

Recent history suggested the semifinal against Mexico would remain close.

However, there were some personnel shifts that should have led folks like me — who backed Mexico +0.5 goals pregame — to back the Americans.

The U.S. had two key absences in defensive midfielder Tyler Adams and center back Tim Ream. But the latter was more or less offset by the return of Miles Robinson and the former mattered less than expected as the starting front four — Folarin Balogun at striker, Christian Pulisic and Timothy Weah on the wings and Giovanni Reyna in the central playmaking role — may have been the most talented group to ever suit up for the U.S.

Factor in the absence of Hirving Lozano, Tecatito and Raul Jimenez, and this was not only a Mexico program with less talent, but one without several of its most important players. The U.S. ripped them open in a way we've never seen in the CONCACAF Clasico.

The U.S. will again have the talent edge, but it also has some holes to fill because of second-half red cards issued to defensive midfielder Weston McKennie and fullback Sergino Dest.

Canada Looking For Significant Win

The Canucks finished atop CONCACAF qualifying and in defeating Panama, they slayed the side that gave them the most trouble during the 14-game final round.

In some ways, the Canaleros play a similar style to the CanMNT as they are intent on keeping their shape and sit in a relatively low block while looking to counter at speed. With manager John Herdman's decision to bring Alphonso Davies off the bench, it was a relatively even opening hour.

But the tradeoff is that a fresh Davies put the game away with a goal shortly after his insertion into the match. Additionally, he'll now be fresh as Canada looks to its game against the U.S.

While Canada did edge the U.S. across two qualifying games, its in CONCACAF competitions is poor against its southern neighbors. Canada has only one win in seven attempts, a 2-0 home victory in group play of the previous CONCACAF Nations League.

The CanMNT was arguably the better side against the U.S. in the 2021 Gold Cup, but that was more or less the U.S. second team — a collection of fringe World Cup hopefuls — playing against Canada's best.

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USA vs Canada Pick

It would be a major surprise if the United States isn't the team with the majority of the ball while Canada looks to defend and counter.

That doesn't mean the moneyline is soft on the USMNT as there's plenty of evidence that the USMNT can struggle against that approach. And unlike in Thursday's game against Mexico, the U.S. won't have a clear advantage from an athleticism standpoint.

But the flow of the game may make the U.S. appear to be a stronger favorite, which has me looking to the corner-kick market. At -110 odds and an implied 52.4% probability, backing the Americans to have more corners on a three-way spread carries a lot of value.

They led the corner count by three in both qualifying games, which I think will closely resemble this match.

The other wager I like is a goal bands wager on one or two total goals scored in 90 minutes at -120 odds and an implied 54.5% probability.

Basically, it's a way to get a better price on the under in exchange for taking a 0-0 draw after 90 out of the equation. And it's a wager that has cashed in six of the past nine competitive fixtures between these sides — a span of nearly two decades — including in four of the past five.

If you want to get more aggressive, FanDuel has some generous prices on both Davies (+650) and Pulisic (+340) as anytime goal scorers.

Those odds may not last until kickoff, but stranger things have happened.

Picks: USA to have more corners (-110, BetRivers), Multi-goal: 1 or 2 total goals (-120, Caesars)