USA vs. France Women’s World Cup Odds, Preview: How Pros Are Betting the Match
Michael Chow, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Crystal Dunn celebrates with the Women’s National Team
- The USA women's national team plays France in the quarterfinals of the 2019 Women's World Cup.
- The USA are slight favorites over France, but are sharp bettors backing the Americans?
- Dan McGuire breaks down the betting market and analyzes Friday's quarterfinal.
USA vs. France Betting Odds
- Odds to Advance: USA -160, France +140
- USA Odds: +130
- France Odds: +240
- Draw: +220
- Spread: USA -0.5 (-160)
- Over/Under: 2.5 (u-140)
- Time: 3 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
USA and France will meet in the quarterfinal matchup that everyone was hoping to see when the bracket was set. It wasn’t easy, though, as USA edged Spain in the Round of 16 on a late penalty kick while it took extra time for hosts France to knock off Brazil.
This will be USA’s eighth straight appearance in the World Cup quarterfinal and they’re looking for their fourth title overall. France have reached the quarterfinal twice, advancing in 2011 and losing in 2015, and are underdogs this time around despite home-field advantage.
USA vs. France Sharp Action
Early bettors were keen on both sides but sharp action clearly made a bigger impact on France. Since then it’s been a steady flow of USA wagers.
When the earliest market opened, an onslaught of bets improved USA’s odds from +115 to +105. However, that move was short-lived and sharp money quickly swooped in on France by capitalizing on the price change.
France reached +275 to win and +245 to draw and those odds dropped down to +240 and +220, respectively. More importantly, bettors pounced on the France spread of +0.5 goals to cause a drastic shift in the juice from -115 to -140.
Keep in mind that not all sportsbooks felt the need to adjust. Many U.S.-based operators continue to get hit hard by USA bets and haven’t bothered moving the moneyline off of +105/+110. That’s a big difference than the +130/+135 you can get by shopping for the best line.
The 24-hour span until kickoff is also when the market takes a bulk of its wagers, so there’s no need for some sportsbook to give bettors a favorable line now.
The amount of lopsided money on USA futures is another factor for the books to consider now that they’ve reached the quarterfinal against the most formidable opponent.
At the time of publication more than 80% of bets have come in on USA and I wouldn’t expect those lines of +130 or +135 to make it until Friday afternoon.
In the totals market, the over/under has been hit in both directions due to sharp money. You wouldn’t know it if you just looked at the opening and current odds since they’re the same (2.5 u-140), but bettors have picked their spots during the week.
If USA win in regulation, they’ll tie the all-time World Cup record with ten straight victories (Norway 1995 and 1999) and would play England in the semifinal.
USA striker Alex Morgan has only scored in one match but is still tied for most goals in the tournament (5) with England’s Ellen White and Australia’s Sam Kerr.
The following players will be suspended for the semifinal if they pick up a second yellow card on Friday:
- USA: Megan Rapinoe, Kelley O’Hara, Lindsey Horan and Allie Long.
- France: Gauvin and Eugenie Le Sommer
USA vs. France Prop Bets
- Alex Morgan is the +350 favorite to score the first goal of the match. She’s followed by teammate Carli Lloyd (+500), France’s Eugenie Le Sommer (+550) and Valerie Gauvin (+600), and USA’s Megan Rapinoe (+650)
- The most likely scorelines based on odds are Draw 1-1, USA 1-0, France 1-0, USA 2-1 and USA 2-0
- Both teams to score is listed at -110 odds
- Odds on keeping a clean sheet are USA +160, France +225
- A penalty kick to be awarded is available at +180
- A red card to be given is +600