USA vs Netherlands Pick, Odds | Women’s World Cup Preview

USA vs Netherlands Pick, Odds | Women’s World Cup Preview article feature image

Brad Smith/Getty. Pictured: Alex Morgan.

USA vs Netherlands Odds

Wednesday, July 26
9 p.m. ET
USA Odds-143
Netherlands Odds+450
Over/Under2.5 (+130 / -167)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(+120 / -163)
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here.

It's the group stage game we've all been waiting for. The USA are set to take on the Netherlands in a rematch of the 2019 World Cup final.

While both teams look vastly different from 2019, some of the fundamentals remain the same. The USWNT still have a dominating presence, while the Netherlands love to take ahold of possession.

Read on for my analysis and pick for the USA vs Netherlands Women's World Cup match.

USA Need to Build Upon Opener

Good news USWNT fans, Rose Lavelle has been cleared to start against the Netherlands. The midfielder, who saw her first game action since April in the team’s send-off game, came on in the second half against Vietnam.

And despite just 27 minutes of play, Lavelle was instrumental in generating an xAssists total of 0.24, the fourth-highest of any American player. Lavelle is a key piece when it comes to setting up her teammates, with 20 assists to go alongside 24 goals in 89 international appearances. Not to mention, she loves scoring against the Netherlands, having done so four years ago. Still, expect Lavelle to have a small bump in minutes and not play a full 90. 

While Sophia Smith showcased everything that makes her an elite player against Vietnam with two goals and one assist, the USWNT cannot solely rely on her throughout the tournament. That’s too much for one player to bear, and it’s why this team has players like Trinity Rodman and Alex Morgan on the roster. It’s not like players didn’t have looks on goal the last time out – in fact they had 28 shots. But the USWNT have to be better at finishing their chances, or they’ll continue to struggle as they go further in this tournament. Not finishing chances won’t work against a team as good as the Netherlands.

Nerves should somewhat subside now that the team has one game under their belt. World Cup newcomers know what to expect, and players should be able to find more of a groove. And while the Julie Ertz at center back experiment worked at times, if Lavelle is able to start then Ertz should be back in the midfield, working as the defensive presence that she is. 

Lynn Williams could also provide a defensive presence up front, as she’s great at forcing turnovers and capitalizing on the quick transition. The Netherlands have a crafty group of players, and the USWNT are going to need a number of defensive weapons in every area of the field.

Netherlands Hot And Cold in New System

When the Netherlands are on, they’re on. In a rematch of last year’s Euros, the Netherlands beat Portugal 1-0 on Sunday. But the team was forced out of its comfort zone, holding possession just 57% of the time. Normally, they like to dominate possession and do so with stunning efficiency. 

“They are incredibly organized,” USWNT striker Alex Morgan said of the Netherlands this week. “They have a very expansive shape, in the attack. They don’t give you much space at all to receive and turn or get off the dribble. They’re very quick to close down space."

But the Netherlands aren’t without their faults. After all, star attacker Vivianne Miedema – who is also their leading goalscorer – is out with an ACL injury. And in her absence, Dutch manager Andries Jonker has foregone trying to find a replacement. Instead, the team operates under a 3-5-2 formation with no true striker. At points it has worked, with the team scoring 14 goals in five friendly games this year and winning by wide margins. But in the games they’ve lost, they’ve scored just one goal or fewer. 

Sherida Spitse could present a problem matchup for Sophia Smith, but the opposite could also be true. The two will likely end up facing off against one another at multiple points throughout this one, and it’ll be a fun matchup to watch. Against Portugal, Spitse completed 36-of-44 passes – including 11 in the final third.

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USA vs Netherlands Pick

These two teams are no stranger to one another, having played each other 10 times. The USWNT has lost just one of those matches, won eight and drawn the other. But the USA is unbeaten in its last nine matches against the Netherlands. Although when looking at those meetings, they’re close: six of the games have been decided by two or less goals. 

Neither team looks the same as it did four years ago, or even from the 2021 Olympics in Tokyo, where the USWNT advanced on penalty kicks. While both are dealing with injury issues, the Netherlands has also undergone a coaching change in the past year that has produced mixed results.

Consistency will be key in this one, and the USWNT needs to get out on the attack early on and dominate possession. If they want to win, they’ll need to convert on more of the missed opportunities that plagued them against Vietnam. Meanwhile, the Netherlands could win this one by disrupting the USWNT’s flow and dominating possession. Even still, I take the USWNT 3-2 in this one.

The Pick: USA 3 – Netherlands 2 (Over 2.5, -130 via bet365)

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