Champions League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Paris Saint-Germain vs. Barcelona (Wednesday, March 10)
Photos by Franck Fife and Lluis Gene/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Paris Saint-Germain’s Kylian Mbappé, left, and Barcelona’s Lionel Messi.
- Paris Saint-Germain hosts Barcelona in Wednesday's Champions League match at Parc de Princes.
- The Parisians, who are looking to close out the Spanish giants in the second leg of their Round of 16 series, cruised to a 4-1 victory in the first match at Camp Nou.
- Jeremy Pond details why he likes PSG to triumph and reach the quarterfinals below.
PSG vs. Barcelona Odds
|Over/Under||3.5 (-103 / -122)|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||CBS All Access|
|Odds as of Wednesday afternoon via DraftKings.|
Nearly four years ago to the day, the global soccer world experienced “La Remontada” when Barcelona pulled off the biggest comeback in UEFA Champions League history.
Trailing 4-0 on aggregate against Paris Saint-Germain after the first league of a Round of 16 tie, Blaugrana did what fans and pundits alike thought was the unthinkable at the time time, pulling off a shocking 6-1 win to advance.
Neymar scored two of Barcelona’s three goals in the final two minutes, plus stoppage time, that day to deliver the stunning victory. Now, fast forward to Wednesday when the Brazil international’s new club (you guessed it — PSG) will try to avoid a repeat of that disastrous night at Camp Nou.
The Parisians, who are looking to close out the Spanish giants in the second leg of their UCL Round of 16 series, cruised to a 4-1 victory in the first match at Camp Nou. Barring a massive collapse on French soil, PSG will advance to the quarterfinal round of the European showcase.
The Parisians are in cruise control entering this match against Blaugrana, which shouldn’t have them overly concerned despite the aforementioned debacle.
However, there is perhaps caught for slight concern — and probably more disappointment than anything else — in the fact Neymar will miss this fixture due to injury. The PSG star picked up a thigh injury in a Coupe de France win a month ago, but has yet to reach match-level fitness.
Although Neymar’s absence creates a tough void to fill for manager Mauricio Pochettino, the Parisians’ three-goal cushion that includes four road goals should be more than enough to march on in the competition.
Neymar has been ruled out of PSG’s UCL game against Barcelona. The Messi reunion will have to wait 💔
— ESPN FC (@ESPNFC) March 9, 2021
French wunderkind Kylian Mbappé will look to dominate proceedings once again after his hat trick in the first leg. The 22-year-old talisman scored twice in PSG’s win over Brest on Saturday in a Coupe de France affair, so I expect his stellar play to continue in this showdown.
Statistically, PSG has some solid numbers in the competition’s advanced metrics. The Parisians sit on a stellar 14.7 expected goals and a middle-of-the-pack 9.5 xGA, resulting in a solid +5.2 xGDiff and +0.75 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Lionel Messi and his teammates probably didn’t expect to find themselves in this position. Not only did Barcelona lose on its home pitch, it was blown out in the process.
Now, Blaugrana will have to throw everything — including the kitchen sink — at an opponent that’s unbeaten in 18 of its past 20 matches and 4-0 in its past four Champions League fixtures.
Barcelona has been on point since that Feb. 16 defeat at Camp Nou, though, going unbeaten in its past five games overall. The visitors have won four consecutive games, all via shutout, entering this latest meeting with PSG.
When comparing numbers with PSG, Barcelona actually leads its foe in most similar categories. The Blaugrana sit on a tournament-leading 17.2 xG and mediocre 10.0 xGA, creating a +7.2 xGDiff and +1.04 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Only Premier League powerhouse Manchester City is better than Barcelona in xGDiff and xGDiff/90 among the 16 teams remaining in the tournament.
Betting Analysis & Picks
It goes without saying that Barcelona is firmly up against it against its French counterpart. Surely, there has to be a glimmer of hope surrounding the La Liga juggernaut, knowing what the club pulled off four years ago.
However, these are different versions of these global powers and PSG is simply too good to let history repeat itself this time around.
For that reason, I will back PSG via a Draw No Bet play at -125 odds on DraftKings as my top pick. The Parisians created too many problems in Barcelona’s defensive third of the pitch last time, and with the match likely to be wide open, I fully expect their counterattack to wreak havoc.
If you’re looking for a little something extra on the prop side, play Mbappé to score anytime at close to even-money odds. There isn’t a ton of value on this play, but the standout has been in brilliant form as of late.
Picks: PSG — Draw No Bet (-125); Kylian Mbappé To Score Anytime — Yes (+107)