West Ham United vs Crystal Palace Prediction: Premier League Odds & Picks
Pictured: Jordan Ayew. (Photo by Tom Dulat/Getty Images)
West Ham United vs Crystal Palace Odds
| West Ham Odds | +100 |
| Crystal Palace Odds | +280 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +100/-120 |
West Ham clinched its place in the Europa League knockout stage on Thursday with a 1-0 away win in Serbia. The Hammers have won four consecutive matches entering Sunday's Premier League London derby against Crystal Palace. West Ham is clinging to its spot in the top half of the table in ninth, but injury concerns are mounting as the league enters the busy December fixture period.
The Hammers will play eight matches this month, including the Europa League and EFL Cup matches. They could be without Mohamed Kudus, Edson Alvarez, Michail Antonio and Jarrod Bowen when they take the field, while Palace will also be without their most important attacking player in Eberechi Eze. The injury concerns for both clubs create value on the under in this fixture.
Find my West Ham United vs. Crystal Palace prediction and picks below.
West Ham United
Bowen and Antonio didn’t play for West Ham in the fortunate comeback win at Burnley last weekend. West Ham created next to nothing in attack for the majority of the match, and the end result was less than one expected goal. They did get an own goal from Burnley and a Tomas Soucek winner in a late flurry to steal all three points, but the lack of quality shots in the penalty area was evident.
David Moyes played a somewhat rotated side in the Europa League on Thursday and managed just 0.6 xG in that match. That means the past two matches without their top two attacking options have resulted in two of their three worst offensive performances of the season. The other worst showing came without Lucas Paqueta against Everton.
It’s clear just how little depth there is for the Hammers in the attack right now, and how reliant they are on set pieces to generate consistent scoring opportunities. In this matchup against Crystal Palace, the Eagles are seventh in xG per set piece allowed. The Eagles will come into this matchup in a defensive set up, forcing West Ham onto the ball to create as the home favorite.
The Hammers haven’t excelled in this spot as they lack the passing quality in midfield to consistently break down defensive blocks like the one they’ll see on Sunday. They rank 16th in xG from open play, 12th in expected threat and 18th in field tilt.
Crystal Palace
The Eagles have two key injuries to their starting XI. Eze has been their highest volume chance creator. He's averaged 0.22 xA per 90 this year, ranks second in carries into the penalty area and is first in total successful take ons. Palace has gotten some solid production out of Jordan Ayew as an outlet when Eze was out injured, but Eze is the clear top outlet option when healthy.
The other injury concern comes in the defensive midfield as Cheick Doucouré will also miss this match. He's the leading tackler and ball winner in the Palace midfield and a good shield for the back four. Overall, his importance to the defense is not at the level that Eze's is to the attack, mainly because the Palace defensive strength lies with the numbers they keep behind the ball and the quality of the center backs.
West Ham United vs Crystal Palace
Prediction
Of the four main units in this game, the West Ham defense is the one that has most underperformed preseason expectations. They rank in the bottom five in expected goals allowed and have struggled to keep out even mediocre attacks. That's the main reason I've been consistently lower than the market on West Ham all year.
Crystal Palace has the better underlying xG difference and given West Ham's injury situation, the Eagles are undervalued to get a result. The most likely way for them to do that is to mitigate West Ham's normal set piece edge and turn this into a low-scoring affair.
As much as West Ham’s defense has struggled this year, the lack of attacking quality at both ends leaves this total a bit too high. I’d bet under 2.5 at -120 or better, and Crystal Palace +0.5 at -125 or better
Pick: Crystal Palace +0.5 (-125 or Better), Under 2.5 Goals (-120 or Better)
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