West Ham vs Tottenham Odds, Predictions, Pick | Premier League Match Preview
Mike Hewitt/Getty. Pictured: Son Heung-Min.
West Ham vs Tottenham Odds
| West Ham Odds | +225 |
| Tottenham Odds | +110 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -250 / +200 |
Premier League midweek fixtures are back, and Tuesday's headliner is a London derby between West Ham and Tottenham in East London.
In their first meeting in December, West Ham turned an early 1-0 deficit around via Jarrod Bowen and James Ward-Prowse second-half goals, although both needed fortunate bounces to occur.
The two sides enter this contest coming off wildly different weekends. Spurs recorded a 2-1 victory over Luton, while the Hammers fell 4-3 to Newcastle at St. James' Park, despite carrying a two-goal lead into the 70th minute.
With Tottenham battling Aston Villa for the last Champions League spot and West Ham, now just a point ahead of Newcastle in seventh, trying to attain a fourth consecutive year of European football, this game figures to be a pivotal one in the campaigns of both clubs.
Read on for my analysis of West Ham vs Tottenham.
West Ham
West Ham have struggled since the New Year, winning just two of their 10 league matches in that time. Given the Hammers' level, losses to Arsenal and Manchester United are excusable — even by wide margins — but the same can't be said of draws with Burnley and Sheffield United along with a 2-0 loss against Nottingham Forest.
While capable of pulling off unlikely results against the best, the Hammers are equally vulnerable to dropping points against lesser opposition. This is due to David Moyes' game model, where attacking transitions and set pieces are the only routes to goal and both the ball and territory are too easily ceded. West Ham have one of the worst build-ups in the league, although that isn't really a concern to Moyes because he would prefer his goalkeeper and defenders just hit long balls up to Michail Antonio and Tomáš Souček and go from there.
The East London side's success often boils down to whether any of Jarrod Bowen, Lucas Paquetá and Mohammed Kudus can conjure up a moment or two of brilliance. And even then, that's sometimes not enough, as evidenced by Saturday's result. For the Hammers, a team commonly described as "defensive," they actually have quite a lot of flaws out of possession. Their press is tame, and ultimately, Premier League teams will eventually create goals if can consistently progress into the attacking half. Ranked 17th in the league in Field Tilt and 19th in xThreat Allowed, West Ham rely on nothing more than individual quality to churn out results, which is far from ideal.
Tottenham
Few teams have been more exciting to watch than Spurs this season, although Ange Postecoglou probably wishes some of the entertainment value his side provides could be curtailed. The North London club is on the cutting edge of in-possession play, but that does frequently come at the cost of solidity in defensive transitions. Regardless, Tottenham are among the best at winning the ball – keeping it and using it – a far cry from where they were under previous managerial regimes.
Spurs often punish opponents who attempt to press by cutting through them with technical and positional precision, yielding attacking transitions with numeric superiority. They prefer those situations for chance creation more than any other, as their attacking profiles are still more suited to attacking space than manipulating a defensive block. That's not to say Tottenham are incapable of the latter, but they can be shut down by a team that's compact and organized in the defensive third. Heung-min Son is still lethal in front of goal, and it's his darting runs in behind that usually unlock opposing defenses.
Without the ball, Tottenham are still developing. A lot of their defensive numbers are negatively affected by Postecoglou having to play Emerson Royal and Ben Davies as center backs when Cristian Romero and Mickey van de Ven went down with injuries in the closing stages of 2023. Bringing Radu Drǎgușin in from Genoa in January and the recoveries of Romero and van de Ven have helped, but Spurs' ability to cope with counterattacks is still shaky. Most of the time, it's the intent to counter-press combined with losing the ball in an unfavorable counter-pressing situation that leaves the three-man rest defense in a tough spot.
West Ham vs Tottenham
Prediction
This match plays into Tottenham's hands. In the reverse fixture, West Ham rolled out a narrow 4-3-3 press that dropped into a 4-5-1 deep block, but they struggled to deal with Spurs' movements ahead of the ball once they did engage.
At home, the Hammers will have an even greater impetus to play on the front foot (as much as Moyes' setup allows), and that will give the visitors plenty of chances to run at a much less athletic back line in favorable conditions. While West Ham do have the attacking threat to cause Tottenham some problems, they don't have the build-up quality, especially against this press, to consistently manufacture opportunities for their forwards to exploit.
I believe Tottenham win this game more than 50% of the time, so with an implied probability of 47.6% in the betting markets, I'll back Spurs.
Pick: Tottenham ML (+110 via Caesars)
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