Wolves vs Tottenham Prediction | Saturday Premier League Picks
Chloe Knott/Getty. Pictured: Eric Dier.
Wolves vs Tottenham Odds
| Wolves Odds | +225 |
| Tottenham Odds | +115 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +125 |
Tottenham Hotspur look to rebound from their first league loss and go back atop the table — at least temporarily — when they visit Wolves to kick off match day 12 in the Premier League.
Spurs were beaten 4-1 on Monday night by visiting Chelsea in a bizarre contest that finished with only nine Tottenham men on the field. But they can move momentarily back above Manchester City with a win in Saturday's early contest, with the Cityzens set to visit Chelsea on Sunday.
Wolves became the first Premier League team to succumb to defeat to Sheffield United, falling 2-1 at Bramall Lane on a penalty awarded deep into second-half stoppage time. The performance was better than the result, though, and it came after a string of four unbeaten against the likes of City, Newcastle United, Bournemouth and Aston Villa.
These teams split their league meetings last season, with each side winning 1-0 at home. Here is why my Wolves vs Tottenham prediction features a play on the three-way moneyline.
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Wolves
Wolves are parked solidly in the middle of the table at the moment, but they will win the award for most difficult home schedule to begin the season.
This will be the sixth 2023-2024 league fixture at the Molineaux. And Spurs will be the sixth opponent Wolves have faced in the top seven sides entering the weekend, with only Arsenal missing.
Any evaluation of Wolves' home sub-par has to take that context into account. And in that context, their five points earned off those first five opponents is no bad haul.
What does limit manager Gary O'Neil's squad right now is the lack of a striker who is generating a high volume of chances. Hwang Hee-Chan's six goals are laudable, but have come through only 2.4 xG-worth of opportunities. Matheus Cunha's 2.9 xG (which has resulted in two goals) leads Wolves players.
As for last week's result? It was certainly unfortunate, but not necessarily an accurate reflection of how Wolves played. The first goal came on a 30-yard strike set up by a fluky deflection at midfield. The second came on a penalty awarded for very minor contact in the box moving away from the goal.
Tottenham
Spurs have exceeded early expectations under new boss Ange Postecoglou, and they may even have grown in confidence from their unusual 4-1 home defeat to Chelsea.
Tottenham were reduced to 10 men in the first half and nine by the 55th minute after Destiny Udogie received his second caution.
Even down two men, they still took 20 more minutes before Nickolas Jackson finally broke through for the first of his late hat trick. Rodrigo Bentancur missed an excellent chance to level the match at 2-all in the 86th minute before Jackson's second and third goals put the match away.
But Spurs are similar to Wolves in that they also seem to lack a true No. 1 goal-scoring threat in the aftermath of Harry Kane's departure for Bayern Munich. Son Heung-Min has eight goals but is due for a regression after taking only 4.5 xG worth of chances. No one else for Spurs has scored more than three goals or generated as much as 3.0 xG.
Then there's the matter of a lengthening injury list that will be complicated further by suspensions for Udogie and Cristian Romero, the latter the start of a three-game ban after his straight red in the first half.
Wolves vs Tottenham
Prediction
What Spurs appear to lack — relative to the other teams at the top of the table — is the ability to find another gear and run away from inferior opponents.
It's true that they boast two multi-goal away wins this season, but those came against Bournemouth and Burnley, two early candidates for relegation.
Wolves are a level above those sides — from early indications, anyway — and have proven the ability to take points of the league's best so far. They've yet to be held scoreless at the Molineaux despite the strength of their schedule.
So I'm playing this one to finish even at +275 odds and an implied 26.7% probability, and there's probably value at least 25 cents below that. It's also a wager that has cashed on 4-of-11 occasions already between Wolves' home games and Spurs' travels in the league.
An alternative is a goal-bands wager on 3 or 4 goals at +145 odds, a wager that has paid out 6-of-11 times between Wolves' games at home and Spurs' away matches.
Pick: ML Draw (+275 via DraftKings)
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