The World Cup Round of 16 offers another two marquee matchups today: Portugal vs. Spain and USA vs. Belgium.
Our team of experts has picks for each match, so let's dive into today's World Cup best bets.
Today's World Cup Best Bets, Expert Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the World Cup matchups that our staff is targeting from today's slate. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:00 p.m. | |
| 3:00 p.m. | |
  | 8:00 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our World Cup odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Portugal vs Spain Best Bet
While Spain's defense has been statistically impressive, allowing a mere 0.86 expected goals against (xGA) through four games, they have not yet faced an attack of Portugal's caliber. Their toughest opponent, Uruguay, underperformed significantly at the tournament.
Spain's system under Luis De La Fuente involves a high press and midfield control, boasting an average possession of 68.2%. This approach can leave them exposed on the break, a weakness Portugal's fast-paced players are perfectly equipped to exploit.
Spain's recent major tournament history also supports this pick: during their victorious Euro 2024 run, they conceded a goal in every knockout-stage match.
Furthermore, the last time these two nations met in a competitive final was the 2025 Nations League, which ended in a 2-2 draw after 90 minutes. This history demonstrates Portugal's ability to score against and compete with their rivals in crucial moments.
Pick: Both Teams To Score – Yes (-143, bet365)
Portugal vs Spain Best Bet
For an anytime goalscorer pick, Lamine Yamal presents excellent value. The 18-year-old has been a constant threat for Spain.
Despite not scoring against Austria, he registered six shots, four from inside the box. His willingness to shoot is a key factor, as he averages 5.60 shots per 90 minutes in this tournament, the most of any player who has featured in all four games.
Coming off an 85-minute performance, his longest of the tournament, it's clear he is fit and central to Spain's attacking plans.
Pick: Lamine Yamal Anytime Goalscorer (+162, bet365)
USA vs Belgium Best Bet
The case for both teams scoring is compelling. The USA has been an offensive force, scoring in all four of its matches in the competition, averaging 2.5 goals per game. Mauricio Pochettino's squad has been exceptionally clinical, converting 5.58 expected goals (xG) into 10 actual goals. They have failed to score in just two of their last 20 international contests, demonstrating consistent attacking threat.
Furthermore, when priced as an underdog (over +150 on the moneyline) since the start of 2025, the USA has kept only one clean sheet in 10 such matches. Seven of those games saw both teams score, with the contests averaging 3.7 total goals. This trend suggests that against tougher opposition like Belgium, the US defense is likely to be breached.
Belgium brings its own offensive potency. They have scored eight goals in their last two tournament games and have seen both teams score in three of their four matches so far.
The most recent meeting between these nations was a friendly in March that ended in a 5-2 victory for Belgium, a match that featured 33 shots and 4.31 xG. While the suspension of US striker Folarin Balogun is a blow, the Americans have proven to be a major threat from set pieces, scoring four times from dead-ball situations—twice as many as any other team left in the competition
Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (+100), bet365)
