Pictured: Denmark’s Christian Eriksen
Peru vs. Denmark, 12 p.m. ET Saturday, Fox Sports 1
- Peru +238
- Denmark +141
- Draw +223
Bet To Watch:
Peru +0.5 goals (-155)
This is a big match for Peru to start the tournament off right, especially since they play France in the second game as big underdogs. Denmark will play Australia next and is expected to win, so a victory over Peru would put them in the driver’s seat to the Round of 16. These two countries will be meeting for the first time, and both enter with 15-match unbeaten streaks.
Peru recently received news that one of their top players and all-time leading goalscorer, Paolo Guerrero, would be returning to the team due to a successful drug-suspension appeal. That’s a huge boost for a team that was already coming into the tournament ready to make some noise, and it has also had an effect on match odds and futures.
The moneyline on Peru to beat Denmark has already dropped considerably over the last couple months, just like the South Americans’ odds to advance from Group C. Peru has become somewhat of a trendy underdog pick, but that doesn’t mean there wasn’t early value on them — I grabbed them at +260 to advance but sharp money has moved them to +150.
Public bettors are all over Peru in the opening match, too, representing nearly 50% of all moneyline tickets around the market. Along with sharp money hitting the Peruvians, the odds have dwindled from +276 to +231. You can see from the line graph below when the odds really moved once Peru got Guerrero back:
They’re definitely trendy underdogs in this matchup, but I agree with the public consensus here. Instead of risking Peru to win straight up, I love the value on +0.5 (-155) which includes the draw as well.
A low total of 2 (o-135) indicates that this may be a low-scoring game, and both teams will deploy similar 4-3-2-1 formations. A draw wouldn’t be the worst result for either side, but both should be going for the win. Denmark will have the edge in the air, but Peru are a scrappy bunch that will fight for everything.