2nd Round Wimbledon Picks, Predictions: Rublev vs Karatsev, Marterer vs Mmoh
Quality Sport Images/Getty. Pictured: Aslan Karatsev.
The rain has caused some chaos and major delays across both Monday and Tuesday at Wimbledon, but enough has been completed that we should see a few second round tilts go on Wednesday.
With that in mind, let's take a closer look at the matches between Andrey Rublev and Aslan Karatsev, as well as Maximilian Marterer and Michael Mmoh.
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2nd Round Wimbledon Picks
Andrey Rublev (-600) vs Aslan Karatsev (+400)
12:30 p.m. ET
The all-Russian tilt between Rublev and Karatsev has the potential to be one of the best matches of the day from southwest London. While the pricing may indicate this one is a lopsided affair, there is no doubt the underdog has all the tools necessary to push his younger countryman.
Rublev has the edge when it comes to playing a more repeatable power-based game, but in terms of pure shotmaking abilities and who has the better backhand? One could make the case it's Karatsev that excels more in those respects.
I'm not the biggest doubter of Rublev's talents – he's an established top-10 player for a reason – but the valuation the market has placed on him in his first two matches is a bit much. Max Purcell has a great game for grass, yet he was well below 50% to win a set. Rublev did win that in straights, but it's worth keeping in mind that the Aussie led by a break and was serving at 5-3 30-15 to clinch the second.
Once again, Rublev is the deserved favorite here, but the extent to which the market has taken it is a bit much for my liking.
Call me crazy, but we've seen Karatsev topple big names before, performing on a big stage in Melbourne. He certainly has the requisite weapons to beat almost anyone when he's playing his best. I'll take a stab at the moneyline at such a cheap price. I give him a much greater chance than the 20% we're seeing at Caesars.
Pick: Karatsev ML (+400 via Caesars)
Maximilian Marterer (-115) vs Michael Mmoh (-105)
12:30 p.m ET
One of the more under-the-radar matches to take place in the second round comes between Marterer (a qualifier) and Mmoh (a lucky loser). Not only were neither able to gain direct entry into the main draw, but they're not exactly standout names even at the Challenger Tour level.
The big-serving German, however, has an explosive game that has threatened to help him return to the top-50, but his body has let him down and the injuries have come fast and furious for the 28-year old. Nevertheless, the Nuremberg native has reached the second round at The Championships as a qualifier for the second consecutive season and it shouldn't come as a big surprise.
He has a big lefty serve, strong forehand to back it up and moves surprisingly well. Consistency can be an issue, but with grass allowing players to keep points shorter, Marterer can mask that on the quicker courts.
Mmoh, meanwhile, was eliminated in qualification at the hands of Laurent Lokoli, before getting a lucky loser spot in the draw and beating the brutally out-of-form Felix Auger Aliassime.
Known more for consistent play from the baseline and his ability to counterpunch into open space from both wings, his first serve played up in a big way on Monday and he was able to drag out enough points on return to pressure Auger-Aliassime's service games from time to time.
The issue for me here is that Auger-Aliassime played an incredibly poor match tactically, has had physical issues of late and was in terrible form. Plus, he's not the most natural returner anyway.
Does Mmoh's serve hold up nearly as well against the athletic Marterer, who has pressured the serves of, and beaten, much better servers than Mmoh?
I'm happy to take the more successful grass-courter with the bigger game in this spot at a near pick 'em.
Pick: Marterer ML (-115 via DraftKings)