ATP Monte Carlo Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Andy Murray to Notch Upset
Mike Frey/Getty. Pictured: Andy Murray.
We're back for a Masters 1000 event on the ATP Tour, as some of the top men's players in the world gather in Monte Carlo. It is worth noting that it's a relatively weak Masters field in terms of depth, but there are still plenty of names for tennis fans to be excited about.
Let's take a look at a pair of first-round matches taking place on Monday from a betting perspective at the ATP Monte Carlo Masters event!
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing tennis.
Miami Open Picks & Predictions
Sebastian Baez (-175) vs Jack Draper (+138)
6:30 am E.T.
When taking a look at the prices available for the opening day in Monte Carlo, I was surprised to see Sebastian Baez out there at a number cheaper than -200.
With all the question marks surrounding Jack Draper, I thought we'd see Baez up in the -200 to -225 range.
Draper hasn't played since having to retire against Carlos Alcaraz in Indian Wells. He withdrew from Miami and there's no guarantee he'll be at his best this week.
Let's put that to the side, though. There are also still questions about the 21-year old's abilities on the red dirt. He's played just 25 professional matches on the surface and is well known to prefer faster conditions.
Draper is just 3-5 above the ITF level on the surface in his career with a win and loss in the quicker conditions of Madrid, where servers find a bit more joy.
That isn't a whole lot to go on, and it isn't a flattering record either.
I'm a tad bit concerned that his power doesn't play as well in Monte Carlo. He's coming off an injury and though he's added a bit more solidity to his game. But in longer rallies, he often looks like he doesn't have a plan of attack and is just hitting to keep himself in the point.
Point construction is crucial on clay. So is stamina – something that has traditionally been a weakness for the Brit.
We also haven't seen him play on clay in nearly a year.
As for Sebastian Baez, he's already won 10 matches on the dirt this year, he's coming off a quarterfinal in Estoril and is an out-and-out clay courter.
There's no doubting that Draper has a higher ceiling and will likely win much bigger events over the course of his career than Baez. On a clay court in April of 2023, however, he isn't close to the player that the Argentine is.
I'll happily lay the games for a larger than normal stake.
Pick: Baez -2.5 games (-115 via PointsBet)
Alex de Minaur (-195) vs Andy Murray (+166)
8 am E.T.
It's the first match of the year for both Sir Andy Murray and Alex de Minaur.
I'd anticipate this one to feature its fair share of prolonged points, with neither possessing overwhelming power from the baseline and both priding themselves and their games on the ability to be incredibly consistent from the baseline.
For my money, I just can't get over Murray being north of the +140 mark in this one.
I understand he isn't nearly the player he was a decade ago, but he's proven to be resilient so far in 2023, and more importantly, he's shown he can last in marathon matches. Considering the slower clay surface and the wall on the other side of the net, that'll be needed.
I have Murray as far more competitive here for a few reasons.
The first is the aforementioned similar game style. There just isn't that much between these two gentlemen.
Second, the clay pedigree of the Brit is far more impressive than that of his counterpart. Even if those achievements were racked up when he was a stronger player and on top of the game, his ability and comfort on the surface is still superior to that of de Minaur.
Finally, I'm not sold on de Minaur's form coming into this tournament. The Acapulco title was a big one for him (though his path prior to the semifinals wasn't all that tough), but he's lost a pair of matches consecutively since then and is now taking on a tough, consistent customer on his least favorite surface.
Picks: Murray ML (+166 via FanDuel)
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