Wimbledon ATP Quarterfinals Betting Preview: Eight Seeds Clash on Wednesday

Wimbledon ATP Quarterfinals Betting Preview: Eight Seeds Clash on Wednesday article feature image

Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Rafa Nadal

Let the real tournament on the men’s side begin, as eight seeds will collide for four spots in the Wimbledon semis. We should see more entertaining tennis on Wednesday than we did in a very chalky fourth round.

For the first time since the 2015 French Open, Roger Federer, Rafa Nadal and Novak Djokovic are all still alive in the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam — and with all playing well, we should have an exciting end to the tournament.

As we look ahead to the “meat and potatoes” of week two, we must focus on the conditions — and how they change toward the latter portion of Wimbledon. We’ve now reached the point where conditions start to slow down. And while big servers were aided in the first week (as we can see by the number of tall, big servers left in the field), more established baseliners will have the edge the rest of the way.

Before we get too ahead of ourselves, let’s take a moment to dig through Wednesday’s matchups to identify any betting value on the card.

Novak Djokovic (-575) vs. Kei Nishikori (+435)

Time: 8 a.m. ET
Where: Centre Court
H2H: Djokovic leads 13-2

With the price so heavily in favor of Djokovic, I don’t see much value in backing him at -575. That said, Nishikori has looked less than spectacular this Wimbledon. He dropped sets against Christian Harrison and Bernie Tomic, before getting pushed by Ernests Gulbis in the fourth round in a match he could’ve easily lost.

If Nishikori looked better, I’d be tempted to test Djokovic — but I like Novak to get through this match and advance to the semifinal. It’s tough to try to predict a scoreline, but I have a feeling Novak will win this one in three, maybe four, sets. With the over/under at 36, I’d lean under.

The Serb not only owns a 13-2 head-to-head record, but he has won 12 consecutive meetings against Kei. And in two of the three times the pair have met at Grand Slams, Djokovic won in straight sets. We could very well see a similar result on Wednesday in their first career meeting on grass.

Bet to Watch: Under 36 Games

Roger Federer (-1500) vs. Kevin Anderson (+900)

Time: 8 a.m. ET
Where: Court 1
H2H: Federer leads 4-0

This line looks a bit high. Roger, rightfully so, should be priced as the heavy favorite — but -1500 seems steep. Anderson has played stellar tennis throughout this tournament and has the game to push Roger in this one. The question then becomes, for how long?

I think the value lies with Anderson +2.5 sets at +130. The South African can keep his service games on his racket — with his big serve and groundstrokes. And if Roger plays a loose game and drops serve, it very well could mean the set. And even if the Maestro doesn’t (he hasn’t dropped serve yet this tournament), we could see one or two coin-flip tiebreakers. Anderson won all three of his breakers vs. Gael Monfils in the fourth round.

I’ve loved what I’ve seen from KA, who looks like the player we saw during his 2017 U.S. Open run (with the “Come on Kevins”). I think he’ll come out free-swinging and aggressively — and will feel less pressure on Court 1. This will mark the first time Federer will not play on Centre Court at Wimbledon since his 2015 match against Gilles Simon.

Even though Federer has won all eight of their previous sets (none on grass), I think Anderson can steal a set on Wednesday.

Bet to Watch: Anderson +2.5 sets +130

Rafa Nadal (-265) vs. Juan Martin del Potro (+220)

Time: Not before 10 a.m. ET
Where: Centre Court
H2H: Nadal leads 10-5

I like Rafa in this match, and — at -265 — the Spaniard looks like a decently priced parlay option. While Roger (and his consecutive-sets streak) has garnered most of the attention over the past week and a half at Wimbledon, Rafa has quietly also come through all four of his matches without dropping a set.

Nadal appears in a good place — both physically and mentally — and I expect him to continue his fine form Wednesday. Delpo, on the other hand, has looked somewhat out of sorts thus far in London. The big Argentine appeared very unhappy with himself (and his game) in his third-round match against Simon. He even smashed his racket over his face at one point. Having to finish that match in two days may come back to haunt Delpo, who will have to play for a third straight day against a relentless and well-rested Spaniard.

With Rafa brimming with confidence — and having won both of their previous grass encounters (2011 Wimbledon, 2007 Queen’s Club) — I’ve got Nadal advancing to the semis. I think he’ll get it done in three or four sets.

Bet to Watch: Nadal -265 (ML parlay piece)

Milos Raonic (-145) vs. John Isner (+130)

Time: Not before 10 a.m. ET
Where: Court 1
H2H: Isner leads 3-1

Battle of the big serves, here. In our tournament preview, I mentioned that I liked Big John to survive this quarter and I’m sticking to it. Frankly, I love the matchup for the American — who has won three of four close encounters against Raonic.

Aside from his one slight hiccup (squandering a 4-0 lead in the third set tiebreak against Ruben Bemelmans … before ultimately pulling out that match in five), Isner has played phenomenal tennis all tournament. He’s also finished three of his four matches in straight sets, which should help his fitness tremendously. He also didn’t play any tournaments between the French Open and Wimbledon, which should also help his legs. Don’t forget that a rested Isner won Miami earlier this year, beating Delpo, Marin Cilic and Alexander Zverev along the way.

Frankly, I make John a slight favorite (around -120) in this match. At odds-against (+130), I’ll happily side with him. If I had to play the total of 46.5 games, I’d play the over. I see this one getting done in four sets (with three or four breakers). Seven of their nine career sets have gone to a breaker, including five straight. You just have to side with the underdog in a match that should feature a number of lotteries to decide sets.

Bet to Watch: Isner +130