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Carlos Alcaraz vs. Oscar Otte Wimbledon Odds, Pick, Prediction (July 1)

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Oscar Otte Wimbledon Odds, Pick, Prediction (July 1) article feature image
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Shi Tang/Getty. Pictured: Carlos Alcaraz.

  • Carlos Alcaraz looks to keep his Wimbledon campaign going against Oscar Otte.
  • He's favored to get past the German.
  • Read on for Avery Zimmerman's analysis and best bet for the match.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Oscar Otte Odds

Alcaraz Odds -330
Otte Odds +260
Over/Under 38.5
Time | How to Watch 11 a.m. ET | ESPN/ESPN+
Odds via FanDuel. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here.

Carlos Alcaraz did well to recover his level after a tough five-set match with Jan-Lennard Struff in Round 1, but he’ll face his trickiest opponent at Wimbledon thus far in Oscar Otte.

The talented German is a natural on grass, and he’s been in great form throughout the short grass season.

Will he be able to provide Alcaraz with another scare? Let’s dive into the match.

Alcaraz Progressing on Grass

We came into the Championships unsure of how the rising star would fare on a surface he’s played so little on. His Wimbledon campaign last year provided a grounding for him, but Alcaraz has grown so much over the past 12 months.

He was handed a difficult test in Struff, but he survived and put forth an excellent second-round showing against Tallon Griekspoor. He generated nine breaks against the Dutchman and conceded just one break himself.

It’s easy to understand why grass isn’t Alcaraz’s strong suit. The Spaniard thrives on gritty, high-bouncing courts that afford him a bit of time. He showcased in Miami and Madrid just how good he can be when conditions are in his favor.

We saw a bit of regression at the French Open, and Alcaraz didn’t play a tune-up event for Wimbledon outside of an exhibition — where he lost both of his matches.

I wouldn’t read too much into those, and he raised his level even within this tournament. That’s a good sign for a 19-year-old that is still learning the unique strategy behind grass-court tennis.

Crucially, Alcaraz’s biggest weak spot — if you can call it that — has been his serve. He has added some power in addition to improved placement, and that will be key for his Wimbledon hopes.

As grass is so serve-and-return centric, continuing to develop that weapon will be vital to his hopes in London. Through two matches, he’s won over 78% of his first serve points and 63% of his second serve points. Those are great numbers.

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Otte a Unique Test for Anyone

If there’s a player that loves being on grass, it’s Otte. The German has a big serve, excellent touch and craftiness that perfectly suits the turf.

Better yet, he has a flat backhand that skids through grass courts. Otte has parlayed his skill set into an excellent grass court season. He made the semifinals in Stuttgart and Halle, and his only losses came in tight battles against Matteo Berrettini and Daniil Medvedev, some of the best grass-courters in the world.

Last year, Otte got through qualifiers and a five-set first round match with Arthur Rinderknech before he fell to Andy Murray in five sets.

He’s one of the players that has thrived the most on this surface over the last two years.

Otte will aim to give Alcaraz consistently different looks while coming into the net. He’s as fresh as can be after dropping just four games in his opening match and getting through his second-round match at 3-1 in the first set due to Christian Harrison’s retirement.

He will be relishing this opportunity.

Betting Value

On almost any other surface, I’d steer clear from Otte at this pricing. However, in this situation, I’m comfortable backing him.

The German is one of the rare cases of ATP Tour players that have their highest Elo Rating on grass. Otte is so comfortable playing on the surface that he should be entering every match with confidence, even this one.

Perhaps I should say especially this match, as Alcaraz will have to make up for expertise on the surface with sheer talent.

There’s no question that he possesses the better all-around game, but that’s not what grass is about. Otte will keep balls low, limit Alcaraz’s opportunities to tee off on shots and offer him consistently different looks.

That includes drop shots, serve-and-volley points, chip-and-charge points and lots of cat-and-mouse points.

This isn’t going to be a traditional match, and Otte will love that. Alcaraz has the level to beat him, but I don’t see it being straightforward.

Pick: 0.75u Otte +4.5 games (-110) | 0.25u Otte ML (+260)

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