Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev Odds, Prediction, Pick | Australian Open Semifinal Preview

Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev Odds, Prediction, Pick | Australian Open Semifinal Preview article feature image

Icon Sportswire, Paul Crock/Getty. Pictured: Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev.

Medvedev vs Zverev Odds

Medvedev Odds-145
Zverev Odds+125
Over/Under41.5 (-110 / -110)
Time | How to WatchFriday, 3:30 a.m. ET | ESPN
Odds via DraftKings. For tips on how to watch Australian Open, click here.

The semifinals are set down under and we have an incredible pair of matchups to take in, with each of the four men remaining being inside the top six in the world rankings.

Let's look more into Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev in my Australian Open semifinal preview.

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Medvedev Taking Care of Business

Another hard-court Slam, another Medvedev appearance in the semifinals. It's no surprise, considering Medvedev is clearly one of the four best players you'll find on the surface and the Australian Open is probably even more appealing to him thanks to the conditions than the US Open.

His path to this point, however, hasn't exactly been without its struggles.

Medvedev has won in straight sets just once, had to come back from two sets down against Emil Ruusuvuori and was pushed hard by Hubert Hurkacz.

His massive first serve and elite defending and rally tolerance have helped ensure that when push comes to shove, the Russian is still alive fighting for the trophy, but I'm not as sold on him being a clear favorite in this match as the market is.

Medvedev did win five of the six matches between the two last season, but the majority of those wins were by slim margins and Zverev had a convincing lead in several of them as well. The matchup from the baseline is also far too even for me to look to lay juice when picking a side in this contest.

Zverev Searching For Another Major Final

It's been nearly three and a half years since Zverev played a match for one of the sport's biggest trophies, and that match surely left a bitter taste in his mouth.

Since that US Open final against Dominic Thiem, the 26-year old has made a trio of semis at the French Open, but he hasn't been back to a final at one of the slams.

This match presents him with an excellent opportunity, even if he is a slight underdog. He's in pretty decent form at the moment, has a big serve of his own to keep him within striking distance of Medvedev when the Russian is serving well, he has the rally tolerance and fitness to handle the long grind that Medvedev can make you play and he most certainly has an advantage when it comes to the backhands involved in the match.

Finally, we saw his willingness to come forward in his last win against Carlos Alcaraz to shorten points – something that will come in handy when Medvedev settles in well behind the baseline and goes into ball retriever mode.

Zverev has all the tools to beat his nemesis from 2023. The semis of the Happy Slam would be the perfect time to show the world.

Medvedev vs Zverev Pick

I have this match far closer to 50/50 than the market does, and nothing in the play of either guy so far in 2024 has been convincing enough to move my number enough to keep me from betting the Zverev moneyline.

Beating Medvedev on a hard court in a best-of-five sets format is a tall order, but it's one Zverev is well-equipped to handle.

Pick: Zverev ML (+125 via FanDuel)

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