Daniil Medvedev vs Hubert Hurkacz Odds, Picks, Prediction | Australian Open Quarterfinal Preview

Medvedev vs Hurkacz Odds

The first quarterfinal of the day at the Australian Open will feature World No. 9 Hubert Hurkacz, into the second week of a Grand Slam for just the third time in his career, attempting to take down two-time Australian Open finalist Daniil Medvedev to achieve his best finish at a slam yet.

Will the defenses of Medvedev wreak havoc on Hurkacz, or will the head-to-head come into play here?

Here is my Daniil Medvedev vs Hubert Hurkacz pick.

Medvedev Riding Weird Run to Quarters

Daniil Medvedev has had an utterly bizarre run to the quarterfinals here in Melbourne. Sure, his third-round defeat of Felix Auger-Aliassime was as routine as they come, but he was bested in his first set of the season by qualifier Terence Atmane before going down two sets to love against Emil Ruusuvori in the second round. Even in his most recent match — a win over Nuno Borges — he failed to serve out the third set in a strange scene before going four against a player he is head and shoulders above.

Medvedev will have to be on high alert in this match, given he's only taken out Hurkacz twice in their five meetings on tour. Those came in Masters events back in 2021, right after Hurkacz defeated him at Wimbledon in their first encounter in a match that was suspended mid-way through with Medvedev holding a firm advantage in the match.

Of note, the last two meetings between these players — contested in 2022 — were held on faster surfaces, on the grass in Halle and the hardcourts in Miami. Medvedev's incredibly deep return position generally puts him in a great position against some of the biggest servers in the game, but it seems not to make an impact against Hurkacz.

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Hurkacz Has Ability to Snag Upset

The 26-year old Pole hasn't exactly been the easiest man to trust in Grand Slams. He's been taken out in shocking fashion before the third round in all five of his trips to the US Open, and here at the Australian Open he's advanced past the second round for the very first time in five appearances. In typical Hurkacz fashion, his first two matches here did little to inspire confidence that he'd make a deep run, but in his last two he's looked every bit the part of a top-10 player.

As the great players generally have the capability to do, Hurkacz raised his level out of nowhere to take out one of the hottest players in the draw in Ugo Humbert and then arguably the next-hottest player in young Arthur Cazaux. He's displayed better returning ability in these matches — quieting fears that his greatest weakness would hold him back from success here — and he's displayed his all-world serve throughout.

As we touched on above, the Hurkacz serve doesn't seem to fall victim to the deep Medvedev return position like it does with nearly every other player who can hit pop them with a lot of pace. He does rank first among all players over the last 52 weeks in overall serve rating, which could have something to do with it, but some of it may also lie in his ability to beat Medvedev for pace from the back of the court with his two-handed backhand.

Medvedev vs Hurkacz Pick

I never thought I'd be backing Hurkacz in a Grand Slam quarterfinal on a hardcourt, mainly because I never even thought he'd reach this stage. With that said, his dominance of Medvedev in some of the biggest tournaments of the season is hard to deny, as is his improved play in recent matches.

With Medvedev's level looking shockingly volatile for one of the most consistent players on tour, I think he's in real trouble here. I love the price on Hurkacz to win two sets in this matchup and will back him to keep up his great play.

Pick: Hurkacz +1.5 sets (-110)