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Frances Tiafoe vs. Benjamin Bonzi French Open Odds, Prediction (May 24)

Frances Tiafoe vs. Benjamin Bonzi French Open Odds, Prediction (May 24) article feature image

Photo by Gualter Fatia/Getty Images. Pictured: Frances Tiafoe

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Frances Tiafoe vs. Benjamin Bonzi Odds

Tiafoe Odds-170
Bonzi Odds+138
Total38.5 (-115 / -115)
Time2:45 p.m. ET
Odds via PointsBet. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here.

Frances Tiafoe is just 24 years of age, but he has made six appearances in the main draw at Roland Garros.

Despite all those trips, he’s still searching for his first French Open win. Is there value in betting on him to secure it, or should we look elsewhere for the best value?

Let’s take a look.

Tiafoe Has Reached A New Level

The stoppage of play in 2020 due to the pandemic wasn’t helpful for many players, particularly those who were attempting to squeeze a few more big runs out of their prime.

However, it seemed to be what Tiafoe needed.

The young American had a rapid rise to the top 100, never once compiling a losing record across all levels until 2019.

That was the year Tiafoe had his big breakthrough as a quarterfinalist at the Australian Open, but it seemed that achievement put some pressure on his shoulders.

Tiafoe would reach the quarters in Miami, but that was about the only highlight for the remainder of the season. He would finish 23-30, the only time in his career he couldn’t crack .500.

After playing sparingly in 2020, Tiafoe looked like a different player in 2021. He took some time at the beginning of the season to work on his clay-court tennis by skipping several hard-court tournaments in favor of Buenos Aires, Santiago, Barcelona and Estoril.

He then dipped down to the Challenger level and won a small tournament at Nottingham. That hard work early on paid off, as Tiafoe would conquer Andrey Rublev at the US Open before reaching the final in Vienna thanks to some massive wins over Stefanos Tsitsipas, Diego Schwartzman and Jannik Sinner.

Why do I bring this up? Well, because it’s important to remember that Tiafoe has reached a new level with his tennis.

It’s hard to remember — given the fact that Tiafoe has only played 21 matches this year due to injury — but an appearance in the final of Estoril after three marathon matches proved the American is still capable of beating nearly anyone on tour.

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Can Bonzi Match His Opponent’s Talent?

Bonzi’s story is one that is much more straightforward than his opening-round opponent’s. He’s a year older at 25 and has really yet to achieve big-time success on the ATP level (14-20 record for his career).

Like Tiafoe, though, 2021 was where we saw the best of Bonzi. The Frenchman won a downright insane six Challenger tournaments, and at one point, was on a 15-match winning streak with three straight titles in St. Tropez, Cassis and Rennes.

Bonzi has managed to pick up nine wins in 18 main-draw matches this year, but he’s yet to really stick around on tour. He’s been playing Challengers, and has already captured two titles. He enters this event with seven wins in his last eight matches after a victory in Aix en Provence.

The amount of winning he’s been able to do is indicative of his personality. He hardly gives anything away and is an extremely hard worker on the court. Also, his serve can get him out of trouble. He certainly lacks ability, though, and his opponent is oozing with it.

Betting Value

As evidenced by his run to the final in Estoril — where he went the distance in four straight matches — Tiafoe is not a guy who is known for comfortably putting away his opponents.

While he’s been able to cover game spreads this season at a decent enough rate, he’s garnered a reputation for sending matches over the total by throwing in a bad first or second set.

Against Bonzi — who will have plenty of help from the French crowd — I think Tiafoe will be forced to work very hard to get the victory. We should see one tiebreak — at the very least — in what I would anticipate is a four-set victory for the American.

I’m seeing plenty of value in the over here, even at a lofty number.

Pick: Over 38.5 (-115)

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