French Open Odds, Picks, Predictions: Thiem to Earn Roland Garros Breakthrough Against Dellien (May 22)

French Open Odds, Picks, Predictions: Thiem to Earn Roland Garros Breakthrough Against Dellien (May 22) article feature image

Carlos Rodrigues/Getty. Pictured: Dominic Thiem reacts to a point at the Estoril Open.

  • Dominic Thiem will play Hugo Dellien in the first round of the French Open.
  • The former US Open champion is still looking for his first win on the year.
  • Kenny Ducey breaks down why you should back him to earn that victory on Sunday morning.

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Hugo Dellien vs. Dominic Thiem Odds

Dellien Odds-110
Thiem Odds-110
Total38.5 (-115/-105)
Time5 a.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here.

Former Roland Garros finalist Dominic Thiem hasn't been having much fun in his return to tennis. He's lost all six matches he's played this season and has fallen outside of the top 100 in the world.

Hugo Dellien has been having a ton of fun, winning 30 matches on the clay this season at all levels. At 28, he's still hoping to translate all the success at the lower levels to the main draw.

Can Thiem finally pull off his first win in a year at the French Open? Let's dive into this one.

Dellien Lacking Grand Slam Quality

The Bolivian is a 28-year-old whose career to this point has to be considered a disappointment.

Dellien has won an insane 440 matches on clay between the main ATP level, the Challenger level, ITFs and exhibitions, and he's lost just 216. This season, he's 30-13 on the dirt, having won a challenger in Santiago and gone to another final and two semifinals.

That's all well and good, but here's the catch — Dellien is just 4-9 at the ATP level this season and 32-45 in the main draws for his career.

We've watched this movie so many times with Dellien; he'll build up some insane momentum up on lower-ranked players in smaller tournaments then show up in tour-level events and flop.

Dellien simply makes too many errors to beat quality tennis players, and that's generally what you'll find in ATP 250 and 500 events. At Roland Garros, you'd better gear up for a good opponent.

Dellien has made four trips to Paris, and none of them have been fruitful. He failed to qualify in 2018 and 2021, and in the two years he did qualify — 2019 and 2020 — he managed just one win over Prajnesh Gunneswaran. That isn't a quality win.

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Thiem Looking For First Win of Season

It's been all downhill for Thiem following his maiden Grand Slam in Flushing Meadows two years ago.

The 2020 season wound down unassumingly enough with a loss to good friend Diego Schwartzman in the quarterfinals of Roland Garros and a loss in the final of the ATP Cup.

Then, 2021 happened. Thiem never got going, nearly losing to Nick Kyrgios in the third round of the Australian Open and getting dominated by Grigor Dimitrov in his next match.

He'd make a run to the semis in Madrid, but his season ended with a 9-10 record and four straight losses. The last of which came on a retirement in Mallorca after Thiem injured his wrist.

The wrist problem kept him out for some time, and when he finally emerged at a Challenger last month he was a shell of himself. Thiem has been trying to play his way back into shape with a total of six matches in the last month and a half, but he's lost all six.

That doesn't mean there haven't been highlights. Though Thiem has won just one set in those contests, he pushed Fabio Fognini pretty hard in Rome and lost an epic second-set breaker to Benjamin Bonzi in Estoril.

He's making too many errors off of the forehand wing right now, but he's still turning back the clock with some spectacular winners.

Betting Value

You can call me crazy for betting on a guy who hasn't won since last May, but that's what I'm forced to do here.

Oddsmakers are finally cooling down after laying Thiem as a huge favorite in almost every match this season to the point where I think they've over-corrected.

The main-draw record for Dellien speaks for itself, as does his record at the French Open.

He's not cut out for best-of-five tennis and he's certainly a cut below most guys on tour. While Thiem isn't playing at the top-five level he was a couple of years ago, I'd still say he can easily be one the best 65 or so in the world based on what I've seen to this point.

Thiem continues to get better, and I think this is where he finds his first win. Dellien should donate countless errors and fold under the pressure of facing a former US Open champion at a Grand Slam.

He's never really been able to handle the spotlight, so why would this weekend be any different?

Pick: Dominic Thiem -110

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