French Open Picks, Odds, Preview: Fernandez & Sasnovich Live as Underdogs (May 27)
John Berry/Getty. Pictured: Leylah Fernandez.
- Jon Reid has found two matches with value on Friday's French Open slate.
- Read on to see which underdogs he's targeting in the morning.
Looking for Saturday’s best bets? Click here!
The second week of the year’s second grand slam nears, as just 32 men and women remain in the French Open.
The third round kicks off on Friday, and the women’s draw will see the bottom half take the courts at Roland Garros.
Let’s dive into a pair of the matches that will determine two of the women that head to the second week of action in Paris!
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.
Belinda Bencic (-245) vs. Leylah Fernandez (+198)
6 a.m. ET
First up, it’s Belinda Bencic in familiar territory. She’s back on Court Philippe Chatrier playing against a Canadian.
That went fairly swimmingly in the last round – though towards the end, Bianca Andreescu made things interesting – but she’s playing a very different opponent this time around in Leylah Fernandez.
Bencic’s tendency to take the ball really early isn’t something that should particularly bother Fernandez. Between her excellent speed, ability to change directions and propensity to hit with precision – even while on the run – Fernandez is well-equipped to deal with Bencic’s preferred method of attack.
Further, the markets seem to be forgetting that clay is not Bencic’s preferred surface. Not the slow stuff found in Paris, at least.
She’s made a run in altitude in Madrid and won a title on green clay in Charleston, but Rome and and the French Open have never been a strength for her.
Bencic already tied her previous best run with this appearance in the third round. Even then, she beat a weaponless Reka-Luca Jani in the first round and am error-prone Andreescu in the second. Even Andreescu noted that until 1-5 down in the second set she was awful.
While the form and confidence are there for the Swiss, being this big of a favorite in slower clay conditions against a very solid mover and returner is a bit off.
Pick: Fernandez ML (+198 via FanDuel)
Angelique Kerber (-115) vs. Aliaksandra Sasnovich (-105)
7 a.m. ET
In the other women’s match, veteran German Angelique Kerber takes on Aliaksandra Sasnovich. There are intriguing prices on this match, likely being influenced by the scorelines from Kerber’s previous two matches. Those, however, are a bit misleading.
Kerber could barely move and was fortunate to get past a borderline ITF Tour player in Magdalena Frech 7-5 in the deciding set of the opening round.
In the second round, she still looked incredibly hampered in terms of movement- a signature part of her game – against young French prospect Elsa Jacquemot. After a 6-1 first set, Jacquemot was much more competitive in the second, as Kerber’s level continued to deteriorate.
The fact is, Kerber has looked really vulnerable and to this point has yet to square off with a player that can really test her. She’ll get just that in the third round via Sasnovich, who has come through matches against Xinyu Wang and Emma Raducanu.
She possesses power off both wings and can play her shots side-to-side to either wear Kerber down or exploit the inability of the German to even get to the shots.
It appears last week’s grueling final continues to wear on Kerber. This is a solid spot to fade her.
Pick: Sasnovich ML (-110 via DraftKings)