Jannik Sinner is entering the 2026 French Open at a level we haven’t seen in decades.
When the odds first opened back in June of 2025, the men’s board looked exactly how most expected it would.
Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz sat tied atop the market at +150 each, with the expectation that the sport’s two defining young stars would continue trading majors for years to come.
Less than a year later, the board looks completely different.
Alcaraz added two more Grand Slam titles during that span, but injuries have dramatically shifted the landscape. He is now out for both the French Open and Wimbledon, leaving Sinner alone at the top of the sport entering Paris.
And the market reflects it.
After opening around -250 entering May, Sinner has now moved to -300 to win the French Open, with the next closest player — Alexander Zverev — sitting all the way back at +750.
At that number, Sinner becomes the biggest favorite entering any Grand Slam since Rafael Nadal at the 2009 French Open.
That puts Sinner in extremely rare historical territory.
In fact, Nadal in 2009 and Sinner in 2026 are the only two players in the last 30 years to enter a Grand Slam at odds of -300 or higher on the men’s side.
And the comparison to Nadal in 2009 is fascinating for more than just the number.
At the time, Nadal was coming off one of the most dominant stretches in tennis history, having won three of the previous four majors overall while also capturing each of the last four French Open titles.
He entered Roland Garros with a perfect 31-0 career record at the event before suffering a shocking fourth-round loss to Robin Söderling.
That defeat remains one of the biggest upsets in modern tennis history. It was Nadal’s first-ever loss at the French Open and the only edition of the tournament not won by him during the 10-year span from 2005 through 2014.
Now, Sinner enters Paris carrying a similarly overwhelming market expectation.
Since losing in Doha in February, Sinner has not lost a match. He followed last year’s Wimbledon title with a finals appearance at the US Open and has started 2026 with a 36-2 record overall.
The market has steadily adjusted in line with those results.
Earlier this year, Sinner was listed at -120 entering the Australian Open. Now, just months later, he becomes one of the very few players in modern tennis history to close as an odds-on favorite at multiple Grand Slams in the same calendar year.
Historically, reaching this level of market expectation has typically been reserved for all-time greats during peak stretches of dominance.
Ironically enough, the men's dominance we once knew is now relying a bit on Sinner to start anew. Since 1990, we've had 36 odds-on favorites entering a Grand Slam.
Between 1990 and 2019, those dominant men went 22-6 in terms of winning the tournament they were a massive favorite in — all 28 included Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic.
Since 2020, these big favs are 3-5 winning the slam, with Djoker and Nadal breaking down and Sinner losing the Aussie earlier this year. We've also now seen two straight odds-on favorites fall short:
• 2026 Jannik Sinner at Australian Open (Lost in Semifinal)
• 2023 Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon (Lost in Final)
In that 36-odds-on-favorites span, we have yet to see three straight fail to hoist the trophy — something we would see in Paris if Sinner can't get the job done.
