Novak Djokovic vs Andrey Rublev Wimbledon Odds, Pick | Match Preview

Novak Djokovic vs Andrey Rublev Wimbledon Odds, Pick | Match Preview article feature image

Photo by Shi Tang/Getty Images. Pictured: Novak Djokovic

Djokovic vs Rublev Odds

Djokovic Odds-1450
 Rublev Odds+800
Time | How to WatchTuesday, 9:45 a.m. ET | ESPN
Odds via DraftKings. For tips on how to watch the Wimbledon, click here.

For the fifth time in their careers and the second time at a major this year, Novak Djokovic and Andrey Rublev will face off.

A Wimbledon semifinal spot is on the line on Tuesday, so how am I betting this clash?

Dive in below for my match preview of Djokovic vs Rublev.

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Djokovic Cruising in Slam Matches

Djokovic has been literally unstoppable at Grand Slams over the last two years — three straight titles, 25 straight matches won and 14 straight wins in tiebreakers.

He's been so good in 2023 that it was surprising to see him even drop a set to Hubert Hurkacz in the round of 16.

But, it turned out Hurkacz posed a matchup problem for the Serbian. And Djokovic admitted that, saying he hasn't been that uncomfortable on return games in a long time.

"He's got one of the best serves in the world"

Classy words from @DjokerNole on his last 16 opponent @HubertHurkacz after defeating

— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 10, 2023

The good news for Djokovic is he won't have to face a serve nearly as good as Hurkacz's the rest of the tournament.

Rublev is a powerful hitter with a solid serve, but he only ranks 37th on grass in Serve Rating over the last 52 weeks (compared to Hurkacz's third).

Rublev Looking to Achieve the Unachievable 

The Russian has now officially become the ninth active player to reach all four Grand Slam quarterfinals. The problem? Rublev has never been further in any of them.

That will surely be in the back of his mind during this match vs Djokovic, but he has proven he can beat the veteran. In 2022 — in Djokovic's home country nonetheless — Rublev beat him in three sets, including a bagel in the decider.

It's unknown if that'll ever extend to a major — remember, Djokovic was still getting matches under his belt due to his limited schedule at the time.

Regardless, Rublev has been up to every task thrown at him in this event. He won three straight sets against fellow Russian Aslan Karatsev in round two, survived David Goffin in round three and held off Alexander Bublik in the round of 16 despite almost blowing a two-set advantage.

Rublev loves being the aggressor and plays with more power than Djokovic, but it's unknown if he can keep up with the "joker" in other notable areas.

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Djokovic vs Rublev Pick

I got burned in the round of 16 backing Djokovic -7.5 against Hurkacz, but I'm going back to the well here in this match.

While Djokovic has a significant edge in terms of experience, the biggest area he stands above Rublev in is mental toughness.

The Russian tends to get into his own head, and that isn't a positive when you're playing the best and most consistent player in the world on a court he hasn't lost on in 10 years.

Yes, Rublev beat Djokovic in 2022, but that wasn't at a major; it came at a clay-court, 250-event while the Serbian was still working back into form. In fact, Djokovic has beaten Rublev three times, including once this year, 6-1, 6-2, 6-4, in the Aussie Open quarters.

I don't plan on betting against a red-hot Djokovic, and I certainly won't in a match where he owns such clear advantages.

Pick: Djokovic -7.5 games (+102)

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