In his first match since April (wrist injury), Carlos Alcaraz takes on Roman Safiullin in the first round of the 2026 US Open (approx. 1 p.m. ET).
Alcaraz, who has already won this event in 2022 and 2025, is the slight favorite (+250 at DraftKings) to capture his third trophy in New York.
Find my US Open preview and Alcaraz vs Safiullin prediction for Monday below.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Roman Safiullin Player Prediction
- Alcaraz vs Safiullin Pick: Roman Safiullin to Win a Set (-185, DraftKings)
My Alcaraz vs Safiullin best bet is on Safiullin to win at least one set. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live ATP odds page.
Alcaraz vs Safiullin Odds
| Carlos Alcaraz Odds | -528 |
| Roman Safiullin Odds | +365 |
| Spread | Alcaraz -5.5 (-150), Safiullin +5.5 (+105) |
| Over/Under | 36.5 (-115o / -125u) |
| Alcaraz-Safiullin H2H | 1-1 |
| Time | How to Watch | Monday, Approx. 1 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds via DraftKings | |
Alcaraz vs Safiullin Preview, Prediction
By: Tudor Cosma
Carlos Alcaraz Betting Preview
Alcaraz, a 23-year-old Spaniard who's ranked third in the ATP, is already a legendary tennis player, even though he's at the beginning of his career. He already has seven Grand Slam, including two titles at the US Open.
When he won the 2026 Australian Open, he became the youngest player all-time to have all four Grand Slam titles. Moreover, he also was the youngest world No. 1 in history.
Alcaraz is a phenom that's rarely been seen in this sport. It's not only the numbers that are dizzying, but also his pure game. He's probably one of the most spectacular tennis athlete of all time, with incredible, otherworldly shots that bring the audience to their feet and go viral on social media.
He's incredibly strong physically, very fast and doesn't have any weaknesses.
There has been talk for a long time about the fact that he prefers to put on a show, because he often thinks about the audience and tries to leave pleasant memories for those who watch him. However, in the last year, he's become more pragmatic.
He also has a positive mental attitude, as he plays tennis with a smile on his face that attracts an enormous fan base.
Everything was going perfectly for Spaniard until the spring, when he seriously injured his right wrist. Since then, he hasn't played a single match. His physical form is still unknown, although he says that he's completely recovered.
However, a wrist injury isn't anything to take lightly.
The 2026 started perfectly, with the Australian Open trophy and a title in Doha. But since then, Alcaraz lost in the final of Monte Carlo to Jannik Sinner and then took a break due to the injury.
The signs originally weren't great for his return, as he lost a practice set, 6-1, to Daniel Merida Aguilar. However, he then beat Cincinnati champion Arthur Fils in a similar practice set.
It's hard to know what we'll see from him in an official match, though.
Roman Safiullin Betting Preview
Safiullin, a 29-year-old unaffiliated player who's ranked 98th in the ATP rankings, is a player who's currently struggling to stay in the top 100 in the world. In fact, lately, he's been outside the top 100 more often than not.
He's much better than one would think, though. About two years ago, he was as high as 36th in the world, and he previously beat Alcaraz.
Unfortunately, he's had some physical problems and is also quite inconsistent. However, he remains a danger for anyone, including his opponent in this first-round match.
His tennis is clean, as he's very good from the baseline and he can easily stay strong in extended exchanges. He has a relatively good serve, but I also find him effective on return.
I wouldn't say he has one huge weapon, but he also has no major weaknesses. I also find him tactically intelligent, capable of discovering the weaknesses of his opponents.
Safiullin started his 2026 season in February, so he missed the Australian Open. He has clay titles at the Oeiras Challenger and the Mauthausen Challenger, and he also played Casper Ruud tightly at Roland Garros, losing in the decisive set.
At Wimbledon, he got past Andrey Rublev and Joao Fonseca before losing to Novak Djokovic in four sets.
On hard courts this summer, he was OK, losing to Hubert Hurkacz and Hugo Grenier.
Safiullin raises his game at Grand Slams, and considering he'll play on one of the biggest stages in the world on Monday, he'll be motivated. It's doubtful that he'll have a weak match, and most likely, he'll win at least one set and possibly the match as well.
Alcaraz vs Safiullin Predictions, Betting Analysis
Safiullin isn't a cake walk of a first-round opponent. At Roland Garros, he lost in the decisive set to Ruud, and at Wimbledon, he defeated Rublev and Fonseca before losing a four-set match to Djokovic.
Meanwhile, Alcaraz comes in after a near five-month break due to a serious wrist injury. Losing a training set to Merida doesn't inspire confidence, and the Spaniard may be hesitant in his first official match back.
I wouldn't be surprised if Safiullin won at least one set today, and a sprinkle on the moneyline doesn't have the worst value.
