At 46 years old, Venus Williams received a wild card to the 2026 US Open, becoming the oldest player to participate in the tournament since 1981.
Williams will face Sofia Kenin in the first round of the event (approx. 9 p.m. ET) and is a heavy underdog, with the game spread sitting at 5.5.
Find my US Open preview and Kenin vs Williams prediction for Sunday below.
Sofia Kenin vs Venus Williams Player Prediction
- Kenin vs Williams Pick: Venus Williams Game Spread +5.5
My Kenin vs Williams best bet is on Williams to cover the game spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live WTP odds page.
Kenin vs Williams Odds
| Sofia Kenin Odds | -630 |
| Venus Williams Odds | +418 |
| Spread | Kenin -5.5 (-120), Williams +5.5 (-125) |
| Over/Under | 19.5 (-130o / -110u) |
| Kenin-Williams H2H | 0-0 |
| Time | How to Watch | Sunday, Approx. 9 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds via DraftKings | |
Kenin vs Williams Predictions, US Open Betting Analysis
By: Chris Gimino
It seems odd to back Williams here, given that she's 46 years old and hasn't won a singles match at the WTA level since 2025 in Washington D.C.
However, there's value on this game spread, according to my tennis model. The +5.5 spread at DraftKings holds a 5.3% edge or an overall grade of a B.
Here's how my model comes to this conclusion:
For every match, three independent signals get blended into a final probability. First, a walk-forward Elo rating for each player (separate for overall and by surface, regressed hard toward a below-average baseline for anyone with a thin sample or a history of playing qualifiers, so a hot streak against weak competition can’t fake elite form).
Second, a point-by-point Monte Carlo simulation built from each player’s real serve/return stats, which gets pulled toward what Elo says whenever the two disagree — Elo acts as a strong check on the simulation, not the other way around.
Third, the devigged market consensus price itself, blended in at the end as a sanity anchor. The result is a single win probability per match that reflects skill history, current form, and what the market already believes, not any one of those alone.
From there, the same win probability is used to grade three markets — Moneyline, Spread, and Total Games — by comparing the model's estimate against what the market is actually offering. The size of that gap, scaled consistently across all three markets on one shared scale, is the “edge” you see, and the letter grade is just that edge bucketed for a quick read.
And also, here's the specific matchup chart for this duel — to see how the model ultimately reached it's conclusion.
In other words, Venus has a strong edge when she's serving, especially in the aces and "Break Points Saved" departments.
Will she be able to stick close with limited conditioning? That's a major question mark, especially at her age and with the lack of matches she's played as of late. However, we're not asking for a Williams victory. Instead, she just needs to stay within five games or less of Kenin and not get blown out.
Pick: Venus Williams Game Spread +5.5
