Number 10 seed Arthur Fils takes on Stefanos Tsitsipas in the first round of the 2026 US Open (approx. 11 a.m. ET).
Fils, who won his first ATP Masters 1000 tournament title last week at the Cincinnati Open, is the heavy favorite (-396 at DraftKings) to win this match.
Find my US Open preview and Tsitsipas vs Fils prediction for Monday below.
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Arthur Fils Player Prediction
- Tsitsipas vs Fils Pick: Arthur Fils to win 3-0 +150 (play to +100)
My Tsitsipas vs Fils best bet is on Arthur Fils to win 3-0 +150 (play to +100). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live ATP odds page.
Tsitsipas vs Fils Odds
| Stefanos Tsitsipas Odds | +288 |
| Arthur Fils Odds | -396 |
| Spread | Tsitsipas +5.5 (-115), Fils -5.5 (-125) |
| Over/Under | 37.5 (-115o / -125u) |
| Tsitsipas-Fils H2H | 0-5 |
| Time | How to Watch | Monday, Approx. 11 a.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds via DraftKings | |
Tsitsipas vs Fils Preview, Prediction
Stefanos Tsitsipas Betting Preview
A former world No. 3 back in 2021, Stefanos Tsitsipas enters his campaign in Flushing Meadows with very modest expectations.
Tsitsipas, who now sits at world No. 53, is in pretty rough form. The preceding events to the US Open are good indicators of current form, and Tsitsipas lost in straight sets in the second round in Montreal to Joao Fonseca and in the second round of Cincinnati to Felix Auger-Aliassime. He hoped to gain momentum with a deep run at the Winston-Salem ATP 250, but after a triumph over Jenson Brooksby in Round 2, he fell convincingly to No. 89 Aleksander Kovacevic.
In general, Tsitsipas has struggled on hard courts, amassing a 14-11 record, including an ugly 6-1, 6-0 loss to his US Open foe, Arthur Fils. In that match, Tsitsipas recorded just four winners and 28 unforced errors, showcasing his issues against powerful baseliners.
The same issues carried into his recent matches, posting 18 winners to 30 errors against Fonseca and 14 winners to 34 errors against FAA.
Why is that a noticeable trend? The group of Fils, Auger-Aliassime, and Fonseca not only generates some of the best power on tour, but can also sustain long rallies on both wings. However, Tsitsipas's error-prone tendencies from the backhand side lead to him bailing out of rallies quickly to try to hit a winner.
Don't get it twisted. Tsitsipas still has a powerful serve, ranking top-10 in first-serve points won and 27th in second-serve points won. His returning is the issue, as he breaks opponents just 17.4% of the time (57th in ATP) and is 63rd in return rating. Plus, he struggles in clutch moments, ranking 66th in under-pressure rating, per the ATP website
He'll need his serve to be at its best in this grueling opening round duel.
Arthur Fils Betting Preview
At just 22 years old, the French star, Arthur Fils, notched his first ATP 1000 title last week in Cincinnati, beating Frances Tiafoe in three sets. He lost just two sets in six matches, dropping the second sets to Tiafoe and another stout player, Jiri Lehecka. Fils also dispatched two other top-10 players, Flavio Cobolli in the semifinals and Alex De Minaur in the third round.
That win gives Fils the momentum he needs for a strong run at the US Open, which he didn't play a season ago due to an injury.
Fils is also a very aggressive player, but he can pick and choose his spots to be aggressive. He made a coaching change, adding former big-time server Goran Ivanisevic to his box, and it's made a difference. Fils ranks 17th in the ATP in serve rating in 2026. I expected Fils to have more than 5.1 aces per game, but his approach is more of a serve-plus-one than just using the serve to end points off rip.
You pair Fils's strong serve, which can reach up to 135 MPH, with his 142 return rating, and he becomes a pretty complete tennis player. Plus, the Frenchman is as clutch as they come, leading the ATP with a 267 under-pressure rating, ahead of Jannik Sinner's 257.
Looking at the line, Fils is a heavy favorite as he should be. I don't view his ML as anything more than an odds booster to a parlay. He should win this match in convincing fashion against Tsitsipas, who has struggled on hard courts and lacks the defensive weapons to break Fils on serve.
Tsitsipas vs Fils Predictions, Betting Analysis
The play to me is grabbing Fils to win in straight sets at +150. Of course, a best-of-five is tougher than winning a best-of-three in straight sets, but considering Tsitsipas won just one game in two sets against Fils in Miami, and how much he struggled in the events prior to the US Open, I expect a routine win for Fils.
Pick: Arthur Fils to win 3-0 +150 (play to +100)
