US Open Best Bets, Picks, Odds for Wawrinka vs Berrettini & Darderi vs Wendelken

The US Open continues Monday, and the tournament's second day will feature the return of Carlos Alcaraz, an American duel featuring two-time semifinalist Frances Tiafoe and an intriguing clash between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Arthur Fils.

But we have two best bets for two matches: Stan Wawrinka vs. Matteo Berrettini and Luciano Darderi vs. Harry Wendelken.

Continue reading below to find our US Open predictions and picks.

US Open Predictions, Picks, Odds — Monday, August 31

Wawrinka vs Berrettini Odds

By: Ryan Minion

This is prime example of how youth should ultimately prevail versus a legend whose best days are well beyond him.

Though Berrettini has taken a step back lately due to injuries, the former top-five player in the world has advanced past his opening match at the US Open in each of his last six appearances.

Berrettini boasts one of the most powerful and effective serves on the ATP Tour, regularly clocking his first serves at 125+ mph with some unique leverage and bounce when it hits quick surfaces like grass or hard courts.

While injuries have kept Berrettini off the court periodically over the last few seasons, the 30-year-old could most definitely be a sleeper at this event given his aforementioned serve and a power forehand that rivals some of the best in the game.

Despite Wawrinka having a lifetime 46-16 overall record at this event, the former Grand Slam winner is now 41 years old and with all likelihood, he'll be making his final appearance in New York.

Like Berrettini, the Swiss veteran has quite the impressive first serve, but he's won just seven of his 24 matches on tour in 2026.

Given how much I respect Wawrinka's serve — which was instrumental during his Grand Slam titles — I favor taking a single game parlay as my primary betting approach. That parlay includes Berrettini winning the match in over 36 games at -110 on DraftKings.

Pick: Single Game Parlay — Matteo Berrettini ML -500 & Alt Over 36 Games

Darderi vs Wendelken Odds

By: Chris Gimino

This isn't a must-watch first-round matchup, but we're searching for betting value rather than storylines.

And in the case of this matchup between Darderi and Wendelken, my model is showing a strong 6.3% edge (B+ grade) on the Italian covering the -5.5 game spread.

Here's how to better understand my model and how it reaches the conclusions (and picks) that it does:

For every match, three independent signals get blended into a final probability. First, a walk-forward Elo rating for each player (separate for overall and by surface, regressed hard toward a below-average baseline for anyone with a thin sample or a history of playing qualifiers, so a hot streak against weak competition can’t fake elite form).

Second, a point-by-point Monte Carlo simulation built from each player’s real serve/return stats, which gets pulled toward what Elo says whenever the two disagree — Elo acts as a strong check on the simulation, not the other way around.

Third, the devigged market consensus price itself, blended in at the end as a sanity anchor. The result is a single win probability per match that reflects skill history, current form, and what the market already believes, not any one of those alone.

From there, the same win probability is used to grade three markets — Moneyline, Spread, and Total Games — by comparing the model's estimate against what the market is actually offering. The size of that gap, scaled consistently across all three markets on one shared scale, is the “edge” you see, and the letter grade is just that edge bucketed for a quick read.

Wendelken is just 24 years old, with limited success on the ATP Tour and in majors. He's 0-2 on tour this season and has played just one Grand Slam main draw match in his career (a loss at Wimbledon earlier this year to Valentin Royer).

Darderi will cruise.

Pick: Luciano Darderi Game Spread -5.5