Saturday Australian Open Predictions | Bai vs Avanesyan, Korpatsch vs Burrage
Rob Newell/Getty. Pictured: Jodie Burrage.
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The notion that tennis never sleeps really does apply on the women's side of things.
Consider that less than one month ago, the 2023 season wasn't even done yet. The WTA was still playing a 125k level event in Limoges, France.
Now we're already three weeks into the 2024 campaign and into the year's first Grand Slam event. Remarkable stuff, and it's a sport that provides a unique opportunity for bettors, with matches to bet on nearly every day of the year.
For day 1 of the Australian Open, I want to look more at Zhuoxuan Bai taking on Elina Avanesyan and Tamara Korpatsch versus Jodie Burrage.
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Saturday Australian Open Predictions
Zhuoxuan Bai (-160) vs Elina Avanesyan (+130)
9 p.m. ET
I'm not exactly sure why Bai can be backed here so cheaply. She's not just the more proficient hard courter between these two, but she's also someone who plays with a flatter ball and slaps the ball around the court.
That's important for a few reasons. First, these courts reward that type of play in general and second, Avanesyan is more of a clay courter and defensive player who covers the court extremely well. She is up there with some of the better ball retrievers you'll find. Hitting a flatter ball means Bai's groundstrokes will skid through the courts and give her Russian opponent less time to track her shots down.
She may not have an abundance of Tour-level hard court wins, but she's not playing one of those players in this case, and Avanesyan's record on the surface is incredibly poor, with one decent win since the start of 2023 against a declining Alize Cornet, who is playing this tournament thanks to the French reciprocal Wild Card and who left the top 100 for the first time in a long, long time in 2023.
I'll lay 2.5 games here no questions asked.
Pick: Bai -2.5 games (-110 via Caesars)
Tamara Korpatsch (-155) vs Jodie Burrage (+130)
9 p.m. ET
This handicap is a relatively simple one.
You've got one player that's a bit underpowered, doesn't possess a real strong serve and relies more on consistency and opposition mistakes to win and another that has a hard-court focused game consisting of a strong first serve and big, flat groundstrokes that are perfect for the conditions in Melbourne.
Would you believe me if I told you the latter was the underdog?
Sure, there is a path to victory for Korpatsch. She spreads the ball around the court well, which can trouble Burrage, who isn't exactly fleet of foot, and she's more durable in hot conditions, which can come in handy should this go three sets.
Those are all reasons for her to be a slight dog or perhaps a pick 'em against the Brit. It doesn't quite explain how she can be a favorite in quicker conditions as someone who is more comfortable on slower clay courts.
Even her warmup performances weren't all that impressive. She lost in straight sets to Bernarda Pera – a powerful, but extremely erratic player – and Naomi Osaka, who hadn't played in a long while since having a child and was a few points from beating her by a resounding six games (she still beat her by a four-game margin in two sets) in her first match back on the pro tour.
Burrage at this price is a fairly easy bet for me to make.
Pick: Burrage ML (+130 via DraftKings)
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