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Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Daniil Medvedev Odds, Picks, Predictions: Who Has Edge in Australian Open Men’s Semifinal?

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Daniil Medvedev Odds, Picks, Predictions: Who Has Edge in Australian Open Men’s Semifinal? article feature image
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Andy Cheung/Getty Images. Pictured: Daniil Medvedev

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Daniil Medvedev Odds

Tsitsipas Odds +220
Medvedev Odds -275
Over/Under 39.5 (-115/-105)
Time | TV 3:30 a.m. ET | ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has not had much success against Daniil Medvedev in his career — and has not had much success in general over the last six months — but coming off a dominant win over Jannik Sinner he may be worth a look in Friday morning’s semifinal.

Let’s run through this one.

Can Tsitsipas Get Past Common Foil?

It’s been a long time since we saw Tsitsipas produce the top-five level of tennis we know he’s capable of, and the one which earned him enough ranking points to rise to No. 4 in the world. Of course, he hasn’t been bad, but the bad losses piled up after clay season in 2021, and namely after blowing a two sets-to-love lead against Novak Djokovic in the Roland Garros final.

The bad form mixed with an elbow injury at the end of the season seemed to cast a large cloud of doubt over Tstisipas at this year’s Australian Open, and his first few matches did him no favors. He dropped a set to NextGen clay warrior Sebastian Baez and the volatile Benoit Paire, looking worse for the wear heading into the quarterfinals, where he’d meet Sinner.

Then, out of nowhere, Tsitsipas returned. He was unstoppable on serve, rarely letting rallies develop when the ball was tossed from his hand. His forehand was crisp and full of life, getting right past a very good defender in Sinner. It was a welcomed sight, and a sign that it’s no longer safe to fade the World No. 4.

The matchup with Medvedev has been one which has given him fits in the past, though. He has won just two of their eight meetings, and even those wins were pretty cheap. He won on clay — where Medvedev is pretty crummy — and at the 2019 ATP Finals, where Medvedev was absolutely exhausted from the longest and best run of his career.

Last year at the Australian Open, he failed to put up any sort of fight, but that was likely due to the fact that he’d just gone five sets with Rafael Nadal in the quarters. This year, the roles will be reversed, and the Greek will look to combine good form with a weakened opponent.

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Medvedev May Battle Fatigue

Yes, about that match with Felix Auger-Aliassime. On paper (and throughout his career), it is one which is incredibly easy for Medvedev. He’s one of the best defensive players on tour, thriving by keeping points alive and waiting for his opponents to make errors. Auger-Aliassime is a player whose career to this point has been marred by errors, leading to a failed realization of his massive talent.

Tuesday night’s semifinal was bad news for Medvedev. Auger-Aliassime was making fewer errors than normal, and on top of that the Russian came out of the gates incredibly flat, perhaps tired or underestimating his opponent. Whatever the reason, he was very much on the ropes in this one and many times over fell behind in service games and flirted with disaster. He even needed to save a match point in the fourth set.

Many will credit Medvedev for his fight — and his resolve certainly deserves recognition — but he had no business winning that match. He’d given it to Auger-Aliassime, and with some better focus or cleaner hitting, the Canadian would be the one here in the semifinals.

The five-set marathon is only the tip of the iceberg here. Medvedev has run the gauntlet to this point and will surely be exhausted entering this match. He’s had very tricky opponents, needing to dip into the gas tank to get by Nick Kyrgios in four, surviving three tight sets with Botic Van De Zandschulp and coming through a four-set with Maxime Cressy which tested his patience, sent him on a rant and even seemed to injure his back.

We don’t really know what we’re going to see from Medvedev here, but it’s fair to assume he will be slightly less than 100%, especially if the match goes more than three sets. He’s the deserving favorite, but he’d likely be even steeper without the five-setter just a couple of days ago.

Tsitsipas vs. Medvedev Betting Value & Pick

I won’t be so bold as to say Tsitsipas wins this match outright, but I see a very tight match here and a tough one for the Russian to come through. Tsitsipas’ level was good enough to beat anyone on tour on Tuesday night and his win came by no fault of Sinner’s, though the score line would certainly tell you that.

If Auger-Aliassime was able to hit through Medvedev and ace him off the court for two sets, Tsitsipas should certainly be able to do that with the way he was hitting last match. Five of the six matches between these two hit the over prior to their meeting in Melbourne last year, and I certainly like that look.

I am going to side with the Tsitsipas set spread in the event Medvedev comes out flat again. I don’t anticipate Tsitsipas failing to capitalize on a two sets-to-love lead like Auger-Aliassime, and think this one could be rather academic if the Greek gets off to a running start.

Pick: Tsitsipas +1.5 Sets (+105)

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