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Thursday ATP & WTA Tennis Odds, Predictions: 2 Valuable Underdogs in Barcelona & Stuttgart (April 21)

Thursday ATP & WTA Tennis Odds, Predictions: 2 Valuable Underdogs in Barcelona & Stuttgart (April 21) article feature image
Credit:

Quality Sport Images/Getty. Pictured: Lorenzo Musetti.

  • Avery Zimmerman breaks down his two best bets for Thursday's WTA and ATP matches.
  • He has found value on two underdogs who could pull upsets.
  • Check out his analysis and picks below.

There’s lots of tennis to be played across the ATP and WTA tours on Thursday after rain delayed the proceedings in Barcelona, and three other tournaments roll on.

We’ll be focusing on matches in Barcelona and Stuttgart for today’s best bets, with one match each taken from the tournaments.

Read on to see how I’ll be betting Thursday’s slate of tennis.

Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.

Diego Schwartzman (-215) vs. Lorenzo Musetti (+170)

match was postponed to 6 a.m. ET on Friday

Lorenzo Musetti has found his level after a shaky start to the season, rattling off two quality wins in Monte Carlo and backing that up with two wins in two matches in Barcelona.

He’s earned each and every one of those matches, generating more break points than his opponents in each and even doing so in his match against his opponent on Thursday, Diego Schwartzman.

The Argentine comes into this match having had a similarly solid two weeks, beating Musetti before falling to Stefanos Tsitsipas in an epic Monte Carlo quarterfinal and dominating Mackenzie McDonald in his opening Barcelona match.

Musetti and Schwartzman played a fascinating round of 16 match in Monaco, as the Italian jumped out to a set and a break lead before Schwartzman stormed back to win the match in the decider.

Stylistically, these two are very similar, relying on excellent ball-striking to thrive off of the ground and win matches there rather than through massive power or serving. That’s why the duo have similar statistics on clay and why they play tight matches.

Both of their matches have gone the distance, with swings of momentum occurring early and often. Thus far on the season, Musetti and Schwartzman both have 39% break rates, more double faults than aces and hold rates between 68-73%.

Musetti actually holds the edge in service holds, and that points to the fact that the two are far more similar in level than they are apart. This is a strong line to be putting on a matchup that was quickly heading the other way just a week ago.

I’ll back this match to follow a similar trend, providing value on the 20-year-old.

Pick: Lorenzo Musetti +3.5 games (-115 via DraftKings)

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Ons Jabeur (-310) vs. Daria Kasatkina (+235)

8 a.m. ET

Charleston’s finalist Ons Jabeur opened her Stuttgart campaign with an impressive comeback victory over Marketa Vondrousova. The Tunisian struggled out of the gates but dominated behind her serve in the second and third sets to gut out the victory.

Daria Kasatkina had a similar comeback in her opening match against Coco Gauff, though the Russian didn’t allow herself to drop a set. She came back from 4-0 down in the first set to rattle off 12 of the next 14 games to earn the victory.

The duo are quite familiar with each other, meeting four times prior. Kasatkina took the first two meetings while Jabeur took the most recent two. In each instance, the match was tight, with each one being played within four games.

I don’t expect a different story on Thursday, as Kasatkina has the movement and power required to nullify some of the strengths of Jabeur’s game. Additionally, the court conditions are solid for Kasatkina, who has done well throughout her career on faster clay courts.

While Jabeur does have an Elo Rating that’s approximately 100 points higher on clay, this isn’t your typical slow clay court, as the indoor conditions in Stuttgart allow for speedier play. To an extent, that is beneficial for a quality server like Jabeur, and lower bounces are useful for her key backhand slice.

But Kasatkina got a taste of power in the opening round against Gauff, and she showed that she’s more than ready to handle that in these conditions.

Much like the Musetti-Schwartzman matchup, I’m expecting the underdog to compete to a high level.

Pick: Daria Kasatkina +4.5 games (-120 via FanDuel)

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