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Tuesday ATP Rio and Marseille Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Facundo Bagnis, Radu Albot to Progress

Tuesday ATP Rio and Marseille Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Facundo Bagnis, Radu Albot to Progress article feature image
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Paul Crock/Getty. Facundo Bagnis hits a forehand at the Australian Open.

It’s a unique week on the ATP Tour as four tournaments are being played simultaneously.

Events are being held in Rio, Marseille, Delray Beach and Doha, which means a host of players get to compete in their preferred conditions or locations.

With dozens of matches set to be played on Tuesday, there are a host of options to choose from, and there are two spots that I particularly like.

Here are the bets that I’m making for today’s slate of ATP tennis.

Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.

Radu Albot (-126) vs. Dennis Novak (+106)

12:20 p.m. ET, Open 13

These are two players who both like indoor hard court conditions, but Albot is currently in better form and I expect that to be the difference in this contest.

The Moldovan is 6-3 on the year with all of his wins coming on hard courts, and he closed out 2021 with very positive results at indoor hard court Challenger events. Albot won a title in a tough Pau field and he seems to be finding his stride after a tough 2021.

Novak enters this match in different circumstances having won just four matches on the year, with all of them coming at the Challenger level. He lost his only Tour-level match to Barnabe Zapata Miralles in Pune, and a quality performance in Marseille would be a serious change of pace for his season.

That’s not to say that Novak can’t generate a win against high quality opponents in these conditions (he has a winning record on indoor hard courts in each of the past five seasons), but there’s no point estimating when a bump in level will come for him.

Albot’s hard court Elo Rating of 1640 is 40 points better than Novak’s, and I’m comfortable taking him as a favorite in this situation.

Pick: Albot -126 via FanDuel

Fabio Fognini (-152) vs. Facundo Bagnis (+130)

While the Italian Fognini has shown a bit of fight in the beginning of his season, it’s largely come on the doubles side, where he’s picked up a quarterfinals berth or better in each of the tournaments he’s played.

Fognini’s 2-3 singles record isn’t as impressive, and this is a trend that we could see from the 34-year-old as he enters the final stages of his career. The same can’t be said for Bagnis, who hasn’t notched a win in the Golden Swing thus far.

Bagnis failed to beat Juan Pablo Varillas in a third-set tiebreaker in Cordoba before falling to a red-hot Francisco Cerundolo in Buenos Aires. This is an extremely important tournament for Bagnis as it’s the penultimate event of this clay period and the only 500-level tournament.

Picking up ranking points in Rio will be crucial for the Argentine, and Fognini’s 9-12 record on clay over the last two years should offer Bagnis a bit of confidence. While Fognini’s Elo Rating is substantially higher than Bagnis’, I’m comfortable backing the player that comes into this match almost needing a win and having his full focus guaranteed.

Back the underdog to secure an important win.

Pick: Bagnis +130 via FanDuel

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