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Tuesday US Open Predictions & Betting Analysis: Muguruza Will Struggle Against Tauson (August 30)

Tuesday US Open Predictions & Betting Analysis: Muguruza Will Struggle Against Tauson (August 30) article feature image
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Icon Sportswire/Getty. Pictured: Garbine Muguruza.

  • Garbine Muguruza vs. Clara Tauson highlights the early slate at the US Open on Tuesday.
  • David Gertler breaks down that match and another.
  • Read on for his best bets and anaylsis.

The US Open is underway, and if Monday is any indication, we are off to an incredible tournament!

I’ve found value on Tuesday’s action, with two matchups on the women’s order of play standing out.

Read on for my US Open best bets and previews.

Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing US Open matches.

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Clara Tauson (-111) vs. Garbine Muguruza (-108)

11 a.m. ET

Garbine Muguruza has gone just 1-2 during the summer hard-court swing, losing in straight sets to Elena Rybakina in her most recent match.

Muguruza has not won consecutive matches since Doha in February and she is 4-10 since that tournament. Overall, on the season, Muguruza is just 9-13.

Don’t let Muguruza’s 262-134 record on hard courts as a professional fool you, because she’s also only 6-7 on hard in 2022. When at her best, she served big and played with controlled aggression from the baseline. However, nowadays the Spaniard doesn’t get as much out of her first serve and she is very erratic from the baseline.

Clara Tauson had a lower-back issue that forced her away for an injury hiatus during the clay-court season, and she’s come back to mediocre results.

Tauson is 3-5 since that injury break and 3-4 since she returned to the hard courts this summer. However, the Dane has steadily improved since her return.

She is 10-10 on hard courts this season, at least in part because of the injury issue, especially given that she started the season 4-1 on hard courts when she was in-form.

Tauson plays power tennis from the baseline, attempting to serve big and use her big groundstrokes to control points. However, like Muguruza, she can become inconsistent at times.

This line is based in part due to Muguruza’s history as a Slam champion, as opposed to her current level of play. Nowadays, Muguruza is shaky from the baseline and struggles with with control when putting pace on her groundstrokes.

Tauson has not been great herself, but her power game is more reliable compared Muguruza at this point and she should be able to more effectively dictate play from the baseline. She has a bit more control over her aggressive groundstrokes right now.

I feel confident fading the Spaniard.

Pick: Tauson ML (-111 via FanDuel)

Taylor Townsend (-126) vs. Katerina Siniakova (+105)

4:15 p.m. ET

Taylor Townsend has played well during the summer hard-court swing, going 7-3. She has won consecutive matches in all three tournaments she’s played on hard this summer. Townsend reached the round of 16 in San Jose, the quarterfinals of the Challenger in Concord, and she qualified for Cincinnati.

Townsend has a heavy, lefty game and uses her forehand very effectively. Her backhand cuts through the court nicely, although it can break down when under fire. The American is very strong at the net and has a high tennis IQ, understanding the right time to employ the variety of different shots in her arsenal.

In addition, throughout her career, Townsend has been a strong hard-court player, with a 128-91 record on the surface.

Katerina Siniakova won an ITF $100k hard-court event in Grodzisk Mazowiecki earlier this summer, but she has struggled since then, losing her first match in Cincinnati and Cleveland. In Cleveland this past week, Siniakova especially struggled, only winning three games in a 2-6, 1-6 defeat to Shuai Zhang.

Siniakova is a solid 153-128 in her career on hard courts and 11-9 in 2022. The Czech is very strong at the net, as evidenced by her five doubles Majors.

She tries to be aggressive from the baseline and her groundstrokes cut through the court. However, Siniakova can go on stretches where she is spraying many unforced errors, especially when she is not dictating play.

While Siniakova won the Polish ITF event, her past two performances have not been inspiring. Against Andrea Petkovic in Cincinnati and Shuai Zhang in Cleveland, Siniakova won under 50% of her service points. It’s very hard to trust her to serve well and to avoid the batches of unforced errors.

Townsend will be able to pressure Siniakova’s backhand with her lefty serve and forehand. The American is going to take time away from Siniakova and force her to hit difficult passing shots.

Her variety will also take Siniakova out of her comfort zone, making her uncomfortable and increasing the number of unforced errors from the Czech.

Pick: Townsend ML (-126 via FanDuel)

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