Wednesday ATP Monte Carlo Odds, Predictions: Hubert Hurkacz, David Goffin on Upset Alert (April 13)
Mark Brown/Getty. Pictured: David Goffin hits a serve at the Miami Open.
- Play continues on Wednesday in Monte Carlo with a number of matches.
- We break down our best bets for the slate, including some underdogs to consider.
The Monte Carlo Masters rolls on this Wednesday with over a dozen matches set to be played.
No. 1 seed and world No. 1 Novak Djokovic was dispatched on Tuesday by Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, creating an open field that allows a clear path for Carlos Alcaraz to hone in on his second Masters title in a row.
But that’s a long ways away, and we have a tournament to be played. Alcaraz will feature on Wednesday’s slate, but I’ll be looking at three other matches that I believe have betting value.
Let’s dive into it.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.
Cameron Norrie (-150) vs. Albert Ramos-Vinolas (+120)
5 a.m. ET
One of the opening matches of the day at the Monte Carlo Country Club is an all-lefty battle between Cameron Norrie and Albert Ramos-Vinolas.
The latter is 3-1 against Norrie throughout his career, and their last meeting on clay was a victory for the Spaniard in a third-set tiebreaker of the Estoril Open final in 2021. However, I believe we’ll see a different outcome on Wednesday.
While Ramos-Vinolas is a far better clay-court player than he is on any other surface, Norrie has elevated his game on the dirt towards his capabilities on hard courts over the past year. In 2021, Norrie totaled a 16-5 record that featured wins over Dominic Thiem and Cristian Garin.
The conditions in Monte Carlo also suit the Brit’s game, as the windy and cold atmosphere has limited the aggression that we’ve seen from players thus far. Norrie is comfortable in extended rallies that become quasi-survival of the fittest situations.
Against left-handers, each player has a better winning percentage than they do against righties, so that shouldn’t be too much of a factor.
In terms of Elo Rating, Norrie’s clay court Elo of 1820 is 100 points higher than Ramos-Vinolas’ 1720, so overall getting the world No. 10 at this price is worth the play.
Pick: Cameron Norrie -150 via Caesars
Hubert Hurkacz (-200) vs. Pedro Martinez (+160)
6:20 a.m. ET
The Miami Open doubles champion and singles semifinalist Hurkacz has established himself as one of the premier hard court and grass court players in the world, but his clay game is still a work in progress. Pedro Martinez, on the other hand, prefers to be on the dirt more than anything else.
Despite this, the Pole is a significant favorite, and it’s hard to understand why. In 2021, Hurkacz picked up just one clay victory, losing four in the swing. Martinez, on the other hand, went 13-10 in the European clay swing last season, nothing special but an indication of someone who wants to be playing in the conditions the players will see in Monte Carlo.
Hurkacz got past clay-court specialist Hugo Dellien in the opening round, but Martinez is a step significantly above the Bolivian. Martinez’s clay-court Elo of 1763 isn’t only 200 points higher than Hurkacz’s, but it’s 130 points higher than Dellien’s as well.
Crucially for Martinez, he’ll be far more equipped to deal with Hurkacz’s massive first serve than Dellien was. Against Dellien, Hurkacz mustered 10 aces and a 74% first serve win rate, but Martinez limited Ugo Humbert to 55% of his first serve points in the first round.
Hurkacz has a more potent first serve, but that’s a solid indication of the Spaniard’s returning prowess. He’ll force Hurkacz to make ball after ball, and the Pole thrives as a counter-attacker rather than as the one that needs to take the initiative in points.
He may be able to get by on his world-class serve, but Martinez should be able to grind his way through this match to solid effect.
Pick: Pedro Martinez +3.5 games (-125 via Caesars)
David Goffin (-142) vs. Dan Evans (+124)
7 a.m. ET
When this event was last held, Dan Evans was the man that upset Djokovic, playing an excellent match and taking advantage of a dip in form from the 20-time slam champion much like Davidovich Fokina did this year.
He thrives in the conditions of Monte Carlo much like others in this piece, and he got all the way to the semifinals last year. En route, he got past David Goffin in a tightly contested quarterfinal.
That isn’t to say that he should be a significant favorite here, as Goffin has found excellent form over the past few weeks, picking up a title in Marrakech and beating Jiri Lehecka in the first round of Monte Carlo.
Six clay wins on the bounce for Goffin has him playing with incredible confidence, but Evans took out Benjamin Bonzi in the first round with a sensational performance that included a first set bagel. Evans generated nine break points of his own while conceding just one, winning 77% of his first serve points.
This should be a very close matchup that could see some serious flow changes throughout the match, but getting Evans at plus-money is an excellent spot.
Pick: Dan Evans +124 via FanDuel
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