Wimbledon Match Previews: Swiatek vs Bencic, Pegula vs Tsurenko Pick
Steven Paston/Getty. Pictured: Iga Swiatek.
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The fourth round at Wimbledon is upon us! The middle Sunday used to be a quiet one at Wimbledon, as there was no play, but starting last year the concept of "Manic Monday" was scrapped and now we do see the fourth round get going on Sunday.
For Sunday's fourth-round action, we'll take a look at a pair of good ones that feature on the two show courts in Iga Swiatek taking on Belinda Bencic and American Jessica Pegula squaring off with Lesia Tsurenko.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing Wimbledon matches.
Wimbledon Match Previews
Iga Swiatek (-715) vs Belinda Bencic (+500)
10:30 a.m. ET
We didn't know how Bencic would look after so much time off and her long match in months being a loss to a +500 underdog at the French Open. Well, not having to play the world No. 1 until the fourth round was a blessing for the Swiss pro, who has worked her way into form nicely.
She worked off the rust against Katie Swan in the first set, before cruising in the second. She beat a tough and powerful Danielle Collins in a tough three setter in the second round and then coasted to victory against Magda Linette in her third test.
Suffice it to say, she's looking like she's back, and Bencic in form is a legitimate contender to win Wimbledon.
Grass suits her game perfectly. She's long been known as a quick-court specialist for a few reasons. First, she takes the ball early. When you combine courts that keep the ball moving quickly with an opponent having less time to recover to the center of the court because of how early she takes the ball with her groundstrokes, you've got an awfully effective offensive combination.
Then, there's the fact that she hits flat. With less air under the ball, it's another way she can take time away from her opposition. Not to mention that ball hits the grass, skids right through it and stays low, out of the opposition's ideal contact zone.
There's a reason Bencic has troubled Swiatek in the past when they've played on hard courts. Swiatek likes time to set her shots up, which Bencic doesn't afford her. She also prefers a the ball sitting up a bit higher, something else that isn't conducive to playing against the 26-year-old. Finally, the Pole's weaker backhand wing is at a major disadvantage against Bencic's, which is key when looking to upset her.
I'll take Bencic to snag a set at nice plus money, as well as the incredibly cheap price on the moneyline.
Picks: Bencic +1.5 sets (+155 via DraftKings) | Bencic ML (+500 via FanDuel)
Jessica Pegula (-385) vs Lesia Tsurenko (+290)
8 a.m. ET
Count me in to oppose Tsurenko off a marathon match that lasted well over three hours against Ana Bogdan on Friday. After squandering a plethora of chances and leads, the Ukrainian came through by the thinnest of margins in an incredibly long tiebreak that had both players hunched over after points on several occasions.
In fact, both players looked visibly injured in some capacity throughout the latter stages of the match, with Bogdan hampered from the second set onwards and needing a few medical timeouts, while Tsurenko started to show signs of issues with her leg in the final set, also needing a medical timeout or two.
Pegula has cited a back concern as the reason for her withdrawal for doubles, but she looked far more physically fit by the end of her match on Friday and that seems far more precautionary than whatever Tsurenko is dealing with.
Then there's the matchup. We know how strong Pegula is. She's proven it time and again with her results. Her last two matches have seen her drop a total of nine games and her deep runs into big events come with regularity. Her struggles almost always come against players at the top of the game and with weapons that outmatch her in the power department and are also too big for her to counterpunch and leave her defending more than redirecting the pace and using it against her opponents – which is her sweet spot.
Tsurenko is neither of those things. She has one of the weakest serves on the women's tour, and with her potentially being hampered by injury, one has to wonder how she'll fare on return. It's her ability to break her opponent's serve relentlessly that has seen her have her best season in quite some time in 2023, but against a top-tier opponent while carrying an injury, I don't see her keeping this close very often.
Pick: Pegula -5.5 games (+115 via DraftKings)
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