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The Golden State Valkyries and Atlanta Dream meet in Game 3 of the WNBA Finals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Ga. The game will be broadcast live on Peacock.
The Dream are favored by 3.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 152.5 (-105o / -115u). The Dream are a -165 favorite to win outright, while the Valkyries are +140 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Valkyries vs. Dream predictions and WNBA picks, and be sure to download the Action Network app for more bets and analysis.
Valkyries vs. Dream Odds, Pick
- Valkyries vs. Dream Spread: Valkyries +3.5 (-110), Dream -3.5 (-110)
- Valkyries vs. Dream Over/Under: 152.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Valkyries vs. Dream Moneyline: Valkyries +140, Dream -165
- Valkyries vs. Dream Best Bet: Valkyries +3.5 (-110)
Valkyries vs. Dream Preview
We cashed our Atlanta +2.5 ticket in Game 2, as the Dream put together a dominant performance in the win, led by Angel Reese's 30-point, 16-rebound performance.
Now, with the series tied 1-1, we shift to Atlanta to see who can win the all-important Game 3 and take a 2-1 series lead.
The biggest change from Game 1 to Game 2 was rebounding, where Atlanta thrived, grabbing 36 compared to Golden State's 32.
Atlanta also had excellent ball movement, racking up 17 assists to the Valkyries' mere 10, which was only 67% of their Game 1 assist output.
Both teams shot better, but still not good, from the three-point line, with neither team eclipsing 30%.
Valkyries vs. Dream Prediction
My T Shoe Index projects Atlanta -1.5 here at home, where they have been better than they have been on the road this season; however, as I've mentioned before, Golden State has been just as solid on the road as they've been at home, so they're not going to be rattled by the Atlanta crowd.
The 14-point win for the Dream last game came in large part due to a huge free-throw disparity, where they shot 35 free throws, compared to Golden State's 19. That's not exactly a recipe I'd rely on if you're looking to back the Dream tonight.
Another thing I expect to regress tonight in favor of the Valkyries is their turnover rate; Atlanta is phenomenal at creating turnovers, yes, but Golden State had the second-lowest turnover rate in the league entering the playoffs, so the 24 points off 19 turnovers the Dream got in Game 2 can't exactly be counted on again here.
The Valkyries are the TSI #1 team, and I expect them to keep this within a possession tonight, if not win outright.
Best Bet: Valkyries +3.5 (-110, BetMGM)
