The Golden State Valkyries (27-11) and New York Liberty (23-15) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y. The game will be broadcast live on Amazon Prime Video.
The Liberty are favored by -2.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 162.5 (-108o / -112u). The Liberty are a -150 favorite to win outright, while the Valkyries are +122 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Valkyries vs. Liberty predictions and WNBA picks.
Valkyries vs. Liberty Odds, Pick
| Valkyries Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -106 | 162.5 -108o / -112u | +122 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -114 | 162.5 -108o / -112u | -150 |
- Valkyries vs. Liberty Spread: Valkyries +2.5 (-106), Liberty -2.5 (-114)
- Valkyries vs. Liberty Over/Under: 162.5 (-108o / -112u)
- Valkyries vs. Liberty Moneyline: Valkyries +122, Liberty -150
- Valkyries vs. Liberty Best Bet: Liberty -2.5 (-114)
Valkyries vs. Liberty Preview
Despite a somewhat underwhelming season in which the Liberty will fall short of its projected win total of 32.5 games, New York proved it's still a championship contender with a 109-102 victory over the Fever, who won both meetings earlier in the campaign.
New York will now have a similar opportunity for revenge against a Golden State team that also won the two prior meetings.
However, this time around, the Valkyries will be on short rest following Wednesday's road victory over the Sun.
With the Valkyries winning by 25 points, the potential for complacency, coupled with a bit of fatigue, could be problematic against a well-rested Liberty team that's looking for its first win in the season series.
Valkyries vs. Liberty Prediction
New York's worst stretch of the season ran from June 19th to July 18th, when the team went just 2-8 in 10 games. Since then, New York has gone on a 10-3 run heading into tonight's action.
Interestingly, those struggles were right around the time the team's star point guard, Sabrina Ionescu, returned to the lineup after a long absence on the sidelines due to multiple injuries.
Ionescu seemed to be playing catch-up and needed live competition to get her fitness levels back up. Defensively, New York struggled during that stretch, posting the league's third-worst efficiency rating at 111.9.
Yet, despite those growing pains, the Liberty still answered the bell when it mattered most by defeating the Las Vegas Aces to win the Commissioner's Cup midseason.
One thing you can count on with a good veteran team is its ability to focus. The prize money that comes along with winning the Cup is a clear incentive, but it wouldn't surprise if it took New York a bit of time to recalibrate once the midseason tournament was over.
Overall, New York isn't the best defensive team. They rank ninth in the rating (107.9) this season, and even in their recent run over their last 13 games, they're no better than seventh, allowing 111.5 points per 100 possessions.
What New York does well is being a very efficient team. Their Effective Field Goal (eFG%) of 54.2% puts them fourth behind the Fever, Lynx and Aces—three teams that are strong contenders to win the title.
In comparison, the Valkyries rank 10th in that category at 50.2%. If we isolate the Valkyries' performance against those three teams, they're just 3-7 straight up.
Those numbers clearly suggest that against the better teams, the Valkyries tend to struggle despite having the second-best record in the league at 27-11.
Ionescu missed the first game when these sides met earlier in the season, and in the second meeting, during her comeback spell, she played just 26 minutes.
I expect this third meeting to be much different, with the Liberty starting to round out into their playoff form.
According to our BetLabs database, teams on short rest coming off a victory of 20 or more points are 0-2 against the spread this season and 2-6 in this spot over the last three seasons.
With my model projecting New York closer to a five-point favorite, I'll gladly lay the -2.5 points that's available at FanDuel.
Best Bet: Liberty -2.5 (-114, FanDuel)
