The Indiana Fever (24-13) and New York Liberty (22-15) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:00 p.m. EDT at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y. The game will be broadcast live on Amazon Prime Video.
The Liberty are favored by -2.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 186.5 (-112o / -108u). The Liberty are a -155 favorite to win outright, while the Fever are +130 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Fever vs. Liberty predictions and WNBA picks.
Fever vs. Liberty Odds, Pick
| Fever Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 186.5 -112o / -108u | +130 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 186.5 -112o / -108u | -155 |
- Fever vs. Liberty Spread: Liberty -2.5 (-115), Fever +2.5 (-105)
- Fever vs. Liberty Over/Under: 186.5 (-112o / -108u)
- Fever vs. Liberty Moneyline: Fever +130, Liberty -155
- Fever vs. Liberty Best Bet: Liberty Team Total Under 94.5 Points
Fever vs. Liberty Preview
A New York victory on Saturday night would level the season series with the Fever at two games apiece. While both teams have defended their home court, with the host winning each of the three previous meetings, I can't help but think that New York has looked somewhat vulnerable under first-year head coach Chris DeMarco.
DeMarco took over from Sandy Brondello following New York's first-round playoff exit to the Mercury in a season where key starters Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones missed 13 games each due to injuries.
Yet despite the absence of those frontcourt players, the Liberty still posted a defensive efficiency of 100.6 and the third-best net rating in the league (+5.2).
This season, New York's defensive efficiency (107.6) is seven points higher with Stewart and Jones each playing all but one game.
One potential explanation for this decline is the Liberty's aging roster, given that they have the third-oldest in the league, with an average age of 28.5 years. Another telling sign is that New York plays at the eighth-slowest pace, with 80.5 possessions per 40 minutes.
Offensively, the Liberty will try to keep pace with a Fever team that has the best efficiency in the league with a 114.9 rating.
Nonetheless, the market is giving New York a ton of respect with the home team climbing to three-point favorites after opening at -1.
While I'm not entirely sold on the move, the dominance of home teams in this series leads me to take a different route to fading this Liberty side.
Fever vs. Liberty Prediction
Indiana is no stranger to these games with totals as high as 185.5. It has already played 12 games in this price range, averaging 97.6 points per game.
In comparison, New York has had just four games with a total of 185.5 and averaged 91 points. Interestingly, the Liberty went 1-3 straight up in those games and 0-4 against the spread.
While the total was 3-1 to the over, it was New York's opponents who did the heavy lifting to cash those tickets, averaging 99.8 points in those contests.
Two of the three opponents in those games were the Fever and Sparks, who both play at a faster pace than the Liberty.
The Aces were the only team in the bunch that plays at a slower pace, ranking a spot below New York in ninth at 80.4 possessions per 40 minutes.
Thus, when you look at the underlying data, I'm not sure I can trust New York to be the driving force in setting the pace of the game.
This total opened at 188.5 and has already ticked down to 185.5 at some sportsbooks.
Historically, games with totals this high tend to go under because teams almost have to play perfect basketball for all four quarters. However, if I had to pick the team with the likeliest chance, I'd side with the visitors rather than the hosts.
The Liberty's team total is 94.5 points, and they've gone over this number just once in the four games with a game total of 185.5 or higher.
Given that the home team has won and covered the spread in nine of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, our best chance to fade the home side is to target their team total.
Best Bet: Liberty Team Total Under 94.5 Points (-110, DraftKings)
