The Minnesota Lynx (5-0) and Phoenix Mercury (4-1) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10:00 p.m. EDT at PHX Arena in Phoenix, Ariz. The game will be broadcast live on ION.
Let's get into my Lynx vs. Mercury prediction and WNBA picks.
The Lynx are favored by -5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 159 (-109o / -111u). The Lynx are a -230 favorite to win outright, while the Mercury are +186 to pull off the upset.
Lynx vs. Mercury Odds, Pick
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 158.5 -108o / -112u | -192 |
| Mercury Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 158.5 -108o / -112u | +160 |
- Lynx vs. Mercury Spread: Lynx -5 (-110), Mercury +5 (-110)
- Lynx vs. Mercury Over/Under: 159 (-109o / -111u)
- Lynx vs. Mercury Moneyline: Lynx -230, Mercury +186
- Lynx vs. Mercury Best Bet: Under 159.5
Lynx vs. Mercury Preview
The Lynx are a perfect 5-0 on the season, but each of their past three wins have been by six or fewer points. Meanwhile, the Mercury are a perfect 4-0 at home this season.
The Lynx are led by MVP favorite Napheesa Collier, who is averaging 26.8 points and 7.8 rebounds per game. Collier has scored at least 20 points in four of five games this season, so Phoenix will certainly have its hands full trying to contain her. As for the Mercury, Satou Sabally and her 19.8 points and 7.4 rebounds per game lead the way. She has scored 20 or more in three games this season and although there are numerous talented players in this matchup, it's certainly reasonable to assume that both Collier and Sabally will have a big impact on tonight's outcome.
Both teams have trends and recent results in their favor, which is why I'm going to pass on the moneyline and target the total instead. These teams each cashed the over in their most recent game, but are 3-2 to the under on the season, which leads me to tonight's pick.
Lynx vs. Mercury Prediction
Our "WNBA Under After Over Streak" system, which has an 8% ROI lifetime and is 1-0 this season, suggests a play on the under tonight.
This system targets the under after both teams cashed the over in their previous game. The market often overadjusts after the high-scoring games, which results in an inflated total.
As a result, there's value in tonight's Lynx vs. Mercury under at 159.5.
Best Bet: Under 159.5
