The Phoenix Mercury (22-14) and Los Angeles Sparks (17-18) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10:00 p.m. EDT at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, Calif. The game will be broadcast live on NBA TV.
The Mercury are favored by -4.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 178.5 (-112o / -108u). The Mercury are a -192 favorite to win outright, while the Sparks are +160 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Mercury vs. Sparks predictions and WNBA picks.
Mercury vs. Sparks Odds, Pick
| Mercury Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -108 | 178.5 -112o / -108u | -192 |
| Sparks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -112 | 178.5 -112o / -108u | +160 |
- Mercury vs. Sparks Spread: Mercury -4.5 (-108), Sparks +4.5 (-112)
- Mercury vs. Sparks Over/Under: 178.5 (-112o / -108u)
- Mercury vs. Sparks Moneyline: Mercury -192, Sparks +160
- Mercury vs. Sparks Best Bet: Rickea Jackson Under 19.5 Points+Rebounds
Mercury vs. Sparks Preview
The LA Sparks have been an exciting team to watch as their backcourt can fill it up, but they are the second-worst defensive team in the association at the same time. This has led to high-scoring affairs with the Sparks being 24-10-1 to the over this season.
The Mercury are much more balanced as they have a net rating of 3.6. However, much of that rating is due to their prowess on the defensive end of the floor. Phoenix ranks fourth in defensive rating and has been especially tough on opposing forwards.
On average, they allow the fewest points per game and the fewest rebounds per game to forwards. That is bad news for Rickea Jackson of the Sparks. Jackson has been shooting well of late, averaging 16.8 points per game over her last 10 matchups.
In the same span, she's also averaged 4.4 rebounds per game, which is nearly a full rebound per game more than her season average. However, she's due for some regression, and this is a tougher matchup than any she's faced of late.
We went over the position-specific numbers, but the Mercury are fourth in two-point percentage allowed and second in three-point percentage allowed. So, while we have seen them run and gun with the Sparks in the past, they have the ability to contain their backcourt.
Mercury vs. Sparks Prediction
As mentioned above, Jackson has had the hot hand, but she's likely to be shut down on the glass and is facing a stout defensive team that is primed to contain her.
There may be plenty of points in this matchup, but Jackson is likely to have a quiet night.
Best Bet: Rickea Jackson Under 19.5 Points+Rebounds (-122, FanDuel)
