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The Atlanta Dream (7-2) and Golden State Valkyries (7-3) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. EDT at Chase Center in San Francisco, Calif. The game will be broadcast live on Peacock.
The Valkyries are favored by -1.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 149.5 (-109o / -111u). The Valkyries are a -117 favorite to win outright, while the Dream are -103 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Dream vs. Valkyries predictions and WNBA picks, and be sure to download the Action Network app for more bets and analysis.
Dream vs. Valkyries Odds, Pick
- Dream vs. Valkyries Spread: Valkyries -1.5 (-106), Dream +1.5 (-114)
- Dream vs. Valkyries Over/Under: 149.5 (-109o / -111u)
- Dream vs. Valkyries Moneyline: Dream -103, Valkyries -117
- Dream vs. Valkyries Best Bet: Angel Reese Under 2.5 Assists (-115)
Dream vs. Valkyries Preview
Action PRO projects Dream forward Angel Reese for 1.94 assists in their matchup against the Valkyries tonight, giving us a nice 15.8% edge against the market when compared to her current prop line of over/under 2.5, which is good enough to mark the under with an A- grade in our system.
Dream vs. Valkyries Prediction
Reese posted 2.8 assists per game in the regular season, but this championship environment presents a completely different schematic. Golden State boasts the premier interior defense in the league and force secondary creators to beat them from the perimeter.
The Dream shifted primary playmaking duties into the backcourt. Jordin Canada and Rhyne Howard control the ball on nearly every half-court set. Reese operates primarily as an offensive rebounder and play finisher down low. Her assist opportunities dwindle because she touches the ball deep in the paint to score or draw fouls rather than facilitate.
Pace and intensity also work heavily in our favor. Finals games tighten up dramatically. Possessions slow down to a crawl, transition chances evaporate, and Game 4 produced just 129 total points. Fewer total made field goals across the board automatically lowers the ceiling for individual assist numbers.
Game 5 on the road in San Francisco will demand peak defensive focus from Reese. With her energy dedicated to battling on the glass and protecting the rim, look for her facilitating numbers to stay muted. Back the under with confidence.
Best Bet: Angel Reese Under 2.5 Assists (-115)
