The Minnesota Lynx (30-7) and Washington Mystics (21-14) meet tonight, with the game set to start at 7:30 p.m. EDT at CareFirst Arena in Washington, DC. The game will be broadcast live on ION and can be traded on Kalshi.
The Lynx are favored by -2.5 against the spread, with the over/under set at 164. The Lynx are the preferred trading option, while the Mystics will be looking to pull off an upset.
Let's get into my Lynx vs. Mystics predictions and WNBA picks.
Lynx vs. Mystics Odds
Lynx vs. Mystics Pick
Lynx vs. Mystics Pick: Mystics +3.5 (45¢ – Kalshi)
The recommended trade for this game is to take the Mystics at +3.5. Washington is 9-1 against the spread as a home underdog this season, while Minnesota will be without Napheesa Collier and is wrapping up a lengthy four-game road trip.
Lynx vs. Mystics Analysis
The Lynx will look to extend their winning streak to six games when they visit the nation's capital to take on the Mystics. With a 30-7 mark, Minnesota sits comfortably atop the WNBA standings, four games ahead of the second-place Valkyries.
As for the Mystics (21-14), they're trying to improve their playoff seeding, climbing to sixth in the table with an 8-2 run in their last 10 games.
Washington has been one of the better teams at home this season, as evidenced by its 13-6 mark. Only the Fever and Lynx boast a better home win percentage than the Mystics.
There's certainly a comfort level in playing in front of your home fans if you're a Mystics team that has the youngest roster in the league.
However, these young women can flat-out hoop, and they'll be at full strength, while Minnesota will be without a key player in five-time All-Star Napheesa Collier.
Lynx vs. Mystics Prediction
The market has clearly responded to the news that Collier won't suit up for the game. Minnesota opened as a 6.5-point favorite, but the line has since moved to -3.5 at Kalshi.
With my model, I've tracked the importance of key players to the spread, and I estimate Collier's value is closer to five points.
This is also a tricky spot for Minnesota because it comes at the end of a four-game road trip that began on the West Coast with stops in Portland, Las Vegas and then Golden State.
Then the Lynx have to fly across the country for a game in D.C. before returning home.
Moreover, with Minnesota already setting its sights on the finish line, this is as close to a letdown spot as you can get.
The Mystics have already given the Lynx a tough time in two of their meetings this season, which includes an 84-79 road victory in the first leg of a home-and-home series.
While the Lynx won the return leg in Washington, they only managed a 78-76 victory.
Neither game was particularly high-scoring, which reflects the Mystics' ability to dictate the pace. Washington has the second-best defense in the league, allowing 102.9 points per 100 possessions.
Situationally, the fine margins seem to point to the Mystics as the better side, and an outright win wouldn't entirely surprise me.
Since my model makes Minnesota closer to a 1-point favorite, I'll gladly pocket the extra points with the home team at +3.5. It's worth noting that Washington is a robust 9-1 against the spread this season as a home dog.
Minnesota Lynx vs Washington Mystics Trade: Mystics +3.5 (45¢ – Kalshi)
