Should Bettors Follow the Sparks-Storm Line Movement?
Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Sparks forward Candace Parker
The Los Angeles Sparks (11-3) travel to Seattle tonight (9:30 p.m. ET) looking to avenge an ugly 88-63 loss at the hands of the Storm on June 7. LA has the best record in the WNBA, but oddsmakers opened the team as 1-point road underdogs.
In early betting, a majority of spread tickets are on the Storm pushing the line to Seattle -1.5. Should bettors follow the line movement?
Since 2005, it has been profitable to follow WNBA line movement. According to Bet Labs, in games where the line moves half a point or more betting the team that becomes a larger favorite or smaller underdog has gone 1,223-1,122-41 (52.2%) ATS. It might be profitable, but it wouldn’t be wise to blindly bet each game when the line moves.
That changes when we consider the opponent. The Sparks have won nearly 80% of its games this season and are +140 favorites to win the WNBA championship (Bovada). It is rare for the line to move against such a talented squad.
However, when it does, bettors profit. Since 2005, when the line moves against a team that has won 70% or more of its games, betting the opponent has gone 227-169-5 (57.3%) ATS. This system improves if the opponent is at home: 118-78-1 (60.2%) ATS. A $100 bettor would be up $3,403 following this system.
A casual bettor’s first instinct will be to wager on an elite team such as LA when the line moves against it. Be contrarian, fade the Sparks and lay the points with the Storm at home.