Fever vs. Mystics Odds & Picks: How To Bet This Spread

Fever vs. Mystics Odds & Pick

Odds as of Saturday at 10:30 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Although the Washington Mystics are listed as the home team in their matchup against the Indiana Fever, they will not have the luxury of a home-court advantage.

The truth is that no team in the WNBA will enjoy a home-court advantage after the league announced that in order to salvage the season amid the COVID-19 pandemic, all games would be played on the campus of the IMG Academy in Bradenton, Florida.

The Fever and Mystic tip off at 5 p.m. ET as the third game of a WNBA triple-header.

Indiana Fever Preview

The Indiana Fever finished fourth in the Eastern Conference with a 13-21 record in 2019. Head Coach and General Manager Pokey Chatman was relieved of his duties and replaced by Marianne Stanley, who was on the Mystics staff that won the 2019 WNBA Championship.

The Fever’s poor finish in 2019 did help to land them Lauren Cox from Baylor with the third overall pick in the WNBA Draft. The Fever also added Kathleen Doyle with the 14th pick along with free agents Julie Allemand and Bernadett Hatar.

Gone from the previous season are Betnijah Laney, Paris Kea, and Erica McCall.

Washington Mystics Preview

The Washington Mystics accomplished the one thing every team in the WNBA sets out to do last season, and that’s win a championship. The Mystics needed the fifth game in the best-of-5 series to finally put away the Connecticut Sun, but they got the job done.

This year will be different for Mystic fans as Washington will start its 2020 campaign missing some key pieces that led them to their first WNBA title.

Reigning league MVP Elena Delle Donne is currently away from the team as she continues to rehab an off-season back surgery and it’s not certain whether Delle Donne will even return to the team due to a health condition that puts her at a higher risk if she were to contract COVID-19.

Three-time All-Star Kristi Tolliver left the Mystics to join up with the Los Angeles Sparks and 2019 starting point guard, Natasha Cloud, will sit out this season to focus on social justice reform.

After trading for Tina Charles in April, Mystics fans will have to wait until next year before they can see her on the court. Charles was granted permission by league doctors to opt-out of this season due to a pre-existing condition that puts her at a greater risk during the pandemic.

Matchup Analysis

The Fever lost all three games against the Mystics last season by an average of 19.7 points. One of those losses was a 39-point drubbing on August 18, which makes the average margin of their losses even more lopsided. The average spread in those matchups was 11.3 points and the Fever went 1-1-1 Against the Spread (ATS) vs. Washington.

The Fever should be able to narrow the margin on Saturday, but they’ll need to improve on their perimeter defense. In 2019 Indiana was ranked as the third-worst team in defending the 3-point shot with their opponents making 7.2 field goals beyond the arc in a game. The Mystics took advantage of this weakness by torching the Fever for 11.33 shots made from deep.

It’s no surprise that the Mystics also led the WNBA as a whole in made 3-pointers with 9.3 per game.

Betting Pick

DraftKings opened with the Washington Mystics as a 3.5-point favorite in this matchup. That number has ticked down to 2.5, but I wonder if this is an overreaction.

The Mystics will certainly miss League MVP, Elena Delle Donne, but they still have the players to attack the Fever’s weakness which is their perimeter defense.

The Mystics added Leilani Mitchell who can help stretch the floor with a career 39.6% 3-point percentage. It's difficult to replace Delle Donne, but in 2019 Mitchell actually attempted and made more three pointers (74-for-172) than the League MVP (52-for-121). Both finished the season shooting 43% from beyond the arc but Mitchell did it while hoisting 51 more shots.

Expect the Mystics duo of Ariel Atkins and Aerial Powers to have even bigger roles within the team despite both already averaging double-figures in points (10.3 PPG and 11.4 PPG respectively). Each player made over 40 three-point shots and hit over 35% of their attempts from distance.

WNBA Champions typically start the season well, so I’ll go against the market’s move and lay the 2.5 points with the Mystics.

The Pick: Mystics -2.5

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