WNBA Betting Tip: How to Bet Games With Double-Digit Spreads

WNBA Betting Tip: How to Bet Games With Double-Digit Spreads article feature image
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Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: A Las Vegas Aces fan cheers during the WNBA All Star Game

  • The Las Vegas Aces are 11.5-point favorites against the Dallas Wings on Tuesday (10 p.m. ET).
  • Using Bet Labs, we analyze how bettors should approach WNBA games with double-digit spreads.

Coming out of the All-Star Break, the Las Vegas Aces are tied for the most wins (13) in the WNBA. The Aces have won seven of eight and are second in scoring (81.5 PPG) while holding opponents to 75.4 PPG — the sixth best mark in the league.

While Las Vegas will be trying to take over sole possession of first place in the league on Tuesday (10 p.m. ET), its opponent is hoping to capture the team’s first road victory of the season. The Dallas Wings are 0-10 away from home and are one of the worst teams in the WNBA, having lost five in a row and managing just five wins — tied with the Atlanta Dream for fewest in the association.

Given the current state of each franchise, the oddsmakers have opened the Aces as 11.5-point favorites. Vegas is clearly the better squad but can the Aces cover a double-digit spread?

History suggests the smart play is to take the points with Dallas.

Since 2005, teams getting 10 or more points in the WNBA have gone 204-164-11 (55.4%) against the spread (ATS) in the regular season per Bet Labs. Teams getting double-digit points are often undervalued because of poor recent performance, injuries or perceived matchup disadvantages.

It’s been more profitable to bet these big dogs in certain situations:

  • On the road (home court is overrated): 182-140-11 (56.5%) ATS
  • Receiving a majority of bets (don’t bet against the public in the WNBA): 73-42-3 (63.5%) ATS
  • The line moves one or more points their direction (example: +12 to +11): 43-24-2 (64.2%) ATS

The Wings are double-digit dogs on the road and are currently receiving a majority of spread tickets.

There are other reasons to be optimistic that Dallas can cover this spread. Despite losing five consecutive games, the last three have been decided by a combined 14 points. The Wings have been competitive, they just haven’t found a way to win. Though that hasn’t kept them from cashing tickets for bettors.

This season Dallas has a winning ATS record (10-9) while the Aces are 7-12 ATS. Las Vegas will also be without star A’ja Wilson. Wilson, tied for eigth in the WNBA in scoring (15.4 PPG), is out indefinitely with an ankle injury.

So while the Aces are clear favorites and will likely win, bettors shouldn’t be surprised if the Wings cover.

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