WNBA Odds, Picks and Predictions: Minnesota Lynx vs. Seattle Storm Game 2 Preview (Thursday, Sept. 24)
Julio Aguilar/Getty Images.
Minnesota Lynx vs. Seattle Storm Betting Odds
|Lynx Odds||+8.5 [Bet Now]|
|Storm Odds||-8.5 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||163 [Bet Now]|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
The Seattle Storm finally kicked off their postseason on Tuesday after inconclusive COVID-19 tests forced a postponement of their semifinal series opener against the Minnesota Lynx which was originally scheduled for Sunday.
The third meeting of the season between the two teams looked very different compared to their previous encounters. Seattle won both regular season meetings by double-digits, outscoring Minnesota 193-154 on aggregate. This time around, the Storm needed Storm needed a putback bucket from Alysha Clark at the buzzer to secure an 88-86 victory.
I’m not sure if it was too much rest or rust that helped narrow the gap between the two teams, but perhaps this series will prove to be more competitive than many would’ve thought going into it.
Let’s break it all down and see if there’s anything we can glean from in Game 1 that can help us at the betting window as we get set for Game 2.
Extra Shots for Minnesota
Before we get started with the Game 2 matchup, it might be worthwhile to read through our Game 1 preview, as those themes will remain relevant throughout the series. I’ve been tracking some of the key stats for both teams since their first meeting and it makes sense to continue to do so during this series.
As you can see from the chart below, in Game 1 of the semifinals, the Lynx attempted two more field goals (72) than the Storm (70). Some of those extra field goals came from beyond the arc as they shot five more three-pointers than the Storm in the ballgame.
Transitioning Turnovers Into Assists
The biggest difference in this third meeting compared to their regular season games is, of course, the turnover margin. Minnesota did a great job of protecting the ball and finished +9 in the turnover battle against a Storm team that has tremendous guard play with the likes of Sue Bird and Jewell Lloyd.
But it wasn’t just Minnesota’s ability to limit their turnovers, it was also the movement of the ball which led to better quality shots. Figure this: Minnesota had three players with four or more assists in the ballgame. In the previous two games against Seattle they only had one player with more than four assists.
Odyssey Sims’s return to Minnesota’s lineup, after missing their first meeting with the Storm, has been a big boost for the Lynx as she can spell Crystal Dangerfield with some of the ball-handling duties.
Sims was able to chip in with five assists on the night which is higher than 3.6 regular season average.
Minnesota’s performance in Game 1 of the semifinals proves they can make the necessary adjustments to contend with the Seattle Storm. It’s important to know your own weaknesses as that gives you valuable insight as to how your opponent will look to attack you.
Perhaps the Lynx had some introspective sessions prior to their semifinals matchup because they were able to correct a glaring weakness in turnovers, that resulted in double-digit blowouts in their earlier games.
There are a couple of sportsbooks with the Storm at -8.5 for Thursday night. While I still see the Storm as the better team, that number seems overpriced at the moment.
Instead, I’ll risk a half-unit to back the Lynx as 8.5-point underdogs and risk the other half-unit on a 4.5-point teaser with the Lynx and the under in the Game 3 semifinals matchup with the Las Vegas Aces and Connecticut Sun.
The Bets: Minnesota Lynx +8.5; Two-team, 4.5-point Teaser: Lynx +13/Aces-Sun Under 167