The sixth World Baseball Classic begins on Wednesday, March 4, and will run through the championship game on Tuesday, March 17, at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida.
The goal for this article is to highlight top daily projection edges for World Baseball Classic moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
For Wednesday, I preview Game 1 of the World Baseball Classic (WBC) between Australia and Chinese Taipei. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
Here are my Chinese Taipei vs Australia predictions and WBC picks for Wednesday, March 4.
Chinese Taipei vs Australia Predictions
Chinese Taipei vs Australia Odds
| Chinese Taipei Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 11.5 -105 / -115 | -250 |
| Australia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 11.5 -105 / -115 | +205 |
Australia's lineup is actually slightly better than Chinese Taipei's on paper (projected 74 wRC+ vs. 71 wRC+ at the MLB level), with MLB Pipeline's No. 20 prospect Travis Bazzana and former top-100 prospect Curtis Mead hitting atop their order.
Conversely, Chinese Taipei lost its best hitter in Jonathon Long (CHC AAA, projected 103 wRC+ at the MLB level), who stayed in major league camp to focus on injury rehab after spraining his elbow in a Cactus League collision.
His replacement is Cheng-Jui Sung, a CPBL outfielder who was the hero of the WBC qualifiers (5-for-9 with a home run) but projects around 72 wRC+, a 30-point downgrade from the guy he's replacing.
However, Chinese Taipei's pitching projects as the dramatically superior unit — I forecast them for a 3.79 FIP and a 15.8% strikeout minus walk rate, compared to marks of 5.48 and 5.8% for Australia's pitching staff.
Put another way, I project Taipei's pitching staff as 12% better than average for the tournament, while I have Australia's pitchers as 56% below average.
I would have set the game closer to -250 with Long in the fold, but make it nearer to -230 without him, and I essentially align with the betting market. I would play Chinese Taipei at -210, or I'd want at least +250 to back Australia. Otherwise, I'd pass on taking a side in this game.
However, I like the Under 11.5 runs, especially when some books come down to 11 or 10.5 after opening at 11.5 (juiced to the Over).
Pick: Under 11.5 (-115), Caesars | Bet to 11.5 (-145) or 11 (-125)
Sean Zerillo's World Baseball Classic Picks for March 4
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- Chinese Taipei vs Australia Under 11.5 (-115, Risk 1u) Caesars | Bet to 11.5 (-145) or 11 (-125)
